Case-Shiller index makes the bottom of the housing market look more distant

Posted by: Prashant Gopal on May 27, 2008

S&P/Case-Shiller first quarter home price indexes released May 27 should be a reality check for anybody still arguing that the real estate market is bottoming out.

The national index showed that prices fell 14.1% from a year earlier — the biggest drop in 20 years. Sales of foreclosed properties are pushing down prices, especially in weak markets such as South Florida, Nevada, Southern California, Arizona and Rhode Island.

The problem isn’t just that prices are plunging. It’s that the inventory of unsold homes is growing and must shrink dramatically before a turnaround is possible. The number of homes available for sale jumped 10.5% to 4.55 million at the end of April, representing an 11.2-month supply at the current sales pace. Compare that to January 2005 when the market had a tight 3.6-month supply of homes.

Nationally, prices have returned to levels that haven’t been seen since June 2004 (though they’re still 60% higher than they were in 2000), David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s.

Blitzer said banks have finally gotten aggressive about cutting prices to remove foreclosed homes from their books and that’s pushing the index down.

“To get the housing market to turn around and stabilize, you have to have less supply out there,” Blitzer said.

The declines aren’t necessarily contained to a few bad markets – though only a handful of states are seeing massive drops. A recent report by the National Association of Realtors, which reported a 7.7% drop in first quarter median home prices, showed that prices in two-thirds of the more than 150 metro areas that it monitors were down.

Of course, not all markets are in free fall. Charlotte, N.C. actually saw an 0.8% gain in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, according to Case-Shiller.

Those looking for signs of a recovery will likely point to today’s new home report released by the Commerce Department, showing that new home sales jumped 3.3% in April – the first increase in six months. But the slight rise comes after a 11% drop in March.

Even the National Association of Builders saw little to trumpet in the data despite a slight reduction in new home inventory, which dropped from a seasonally adjusted 11.1 months supply in March to 10.6 months in April.

“The modest bounce-back in new-home sales recorded for April followed a sharp decline in March and belies the fundamental weakness that continues to exist in the nation’s housing market,” NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said in a prepared statement. “Indeed, sales were down 42% on a year-over-year basis, the largest such reversal since September 1981. Our latest builder surveys actually show that home buying has not yet stabilized, and we are anticipating some further erosion over the coming months.”

Reader Comments

Jack

May 27, 2008 04:24 PM

All along these economists have been "predicting" what had already happened instead of what's coming in the future. As late as 2007, most economists do not believe the US will head into a recession any time soon. In 2006, the economists were still saying that home prices will continue increase over the next two years, maybe at a slower pace. The most pessimistic (closest to reality) prediction was that home prices would flatten out in 2008. Why do we need these economists to give us the wrong predictions at every turn of the economy?

berr

May 27, 2008 05:03 PM

they are paid to make predictions .. They think they are smart but its a matter of gambling .. they know we know it .. Fooled by Randomness but they think they got what it takes to predict ... if they would know it they would be millionaires by know by predicting the economy and investing in stocks

We Need Real Data

May 27, 2008 05:20 PM

Case-Shiller again?!? C'mon, can't anyone else see how flawed his methodology is? Generalizing the state of the market from his bad data (and worse conclusions) is driving a state of fear that doesn't need to exist. Yes, there are pockets of horribly declining values in America. No, it doesn't apply to all markets. I keep reading about how San Francisco/the Bay Area prices fell 10%+ but yet I have many very-prime friends who can't buy because they are being outbid in today's environment. Now if you want to talk about minor, outlying areas then it's a different story. I'm very concerned that the media is drawing broad conclusions on a reality that is much more sanguine.
Please, please, please have someone who knows what they are doing check out Shiller's data. Don't just be a pass-through for his Press Releases designed to pump up his business.

ballbuster

May 27, 2008 05:29 PM

For all you suckers who thinks this real estate bust is about to end soon, consider this: these past and future rosy reports about the resurgence of the real estate market are coming from "economist" and "experts" who have substantial real estate interest directly or indirectly. They hired these "Spin Doctors" of Madison Avenue to help them unload their pink elephants on you because their REIT, and real estate portolio are now worthless papers. For the past year, I have repeatedly warned readers not to fall for news and blogs that masqueraded as info-commercials telling people to start buying real estate. Those readers in California who listened to my warning for the past years have saved themselves 25%-30% loss of equity. I'll tell you again: don't buy real estate yet, because this real estate bust isn't over until the real estate scamers bleed to death. The economy is in a deep troubling recession: high price of crude oil, high unemployment, housing construction bust, liquidity meltdown, and dismal consumer confidence are putting incredible downward pressure on inflated real estate prices for years to come. The Fed has failed to pull the ecomony out of its spiral nose dive: 5 consecutive interest rate cuts, issued $500bil to failing banks plus backups, tax rebate check to every taxpayer, free loan money to Chase to take-over BearStearn, etc, etc. The Fed is now impotent because it basically used up all the tricks in its book trying to avoid the inevitable. The good news: For the next ten years, all the real estate scamers will slowly bleed to death.

What is real data

May 27, 2008 06:11 PM

Another "aww c'mon, he doesn't know what he's talking about" post. Shiller's an econ prof at Yale. That doesn't automatically make him correct, but it certainly is a strong cue that you ought to know exactly what you're talking about when you criticize his findings.

Reality Check

May 27, 2008 06:15 PM

All the "NEWS" on real estate and equity markets is just a reflection of what was and is based on old data. Some markets are not as bad as that news purports and there are many willing sellers and buyers. Many are just waiting for a feeling of confidence to act. However, the overall trend of the media has been to beat a drum of doom which sells papers. I wish the people dooming this great economy of ours would commit counter terrorism and go over to the Middle East and blow themselves up.

What_data?

May 27, 2008 06:15 PM

Yes, yes. Believe no one who has skin in the game when it comes to prognosticating where the real estate market is going in the next two years. Case in point. We bought a nice condo in San Diego in November of '01 for 170k. We sold in in August of '05 for 340k. I just checked and two identical units in that complex are on the market today for 219-239. Condos appreciate last and depreciate first. Spin-doctors like the NAR's economist were universally and consistently predicting continued appreciation or soft-landing depreciation from '05 until quite recently, despite the fact that in San Diego in mid '07, only 9% of single-family homes sold for amounts affordable by a family of median income taking out a 30 year, 6% mortgage with 10% down. True, San Diego isn't all of the U.S. But the combination of excessive debt and inability to purchase or refy is a national problem, as Case-Shiller illustrates, and so it is probably the best proxy for true home values that I've seen.

Jim D

May 27, 2008 06:20 PM

To the Real Estate true beleiver that thinks Case-Shiller is flawed: Please point us at a better dataset.

The flaws of Case-Shiller are minor, and not really relevant to this discussion. Prices are headed down, even in the Fort Prime region of the SF Bay Area. Most of San Jose is now at 2004 prices, and dropping by 10k-20k/month. That your street in Palo Alto hasn't felt it yet isn't surprising - it's that way every bust - it goes from the outside inward. My guess: You weren't here, or weren't very old, for the last bust, bottoming in 1992.

Starts in Gilroy, Santa Cruz and Livermore, heads to San Jose and Oakland, and eventually worms it's way to Sunnyvale, then Mountain View, and then Palo Alto, eventually even hitting Richistan in the Los Altos Hills.

By that map, it's Sunnyvale next. Prices have already started to fall there - there's a number of places for sale at 25% off in Sunnyvale already, though the 800k houses are still holding steady - for now.

If you think that San Jose is a minor, outlying area, you need to get out more - it's a city of a million people.

Daniel Weisman

May 27, 2008 07:27 PM

Not true Jack... from February 2006:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2640239019877885520

Econ Minor

May 27, 2008 07:58 PM

Case-Shiller flawed? How so? Using sales data for the same house over time is the best way to show price direction in a market. All real estate may in fact be local, but the aggregate of ALL those "local" markets IS the direction for the nation. Sounds like "We need real data" is engaging in fallacious reasoning by using the anecdotal evidence of his Bay area friends and trying to extrapolate it to all of the US. By the way, his price decline data for the "minor" area of So Cal is right on the money.

The "state of fear" you are trying to avoid doesn't make the reality any less true. You are experiencing cognitive dissonance (i.e. trying to reconcile your ill-fitting beliefs that the market is going up against the tsunami of evidence to the contrary). You must have bought at the top and are having regrets now...

FosterKM

May 27, 2008 08:22 PM

Ballbuster- Your doom and gloom analysis should have you heading for Canada. "high unemployment" unemployment has remained steady at 5% for years and in most circles is considered full employment. We are in the midst of a mild recession (which can only be declared after 2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction) America is far from the 20's era depression you espouse. This is very mild by historical standards. .There is opportunity in any recession. The smart people buy when the sheep are selling and sell when the sheep are buying.

THE OLD SAYING GOES, IT IS ONLY RECESSION WHEN YOUR NEIGHBOR LOSES HIS JOB AND A DEPRESSION WHEN YOU LOSE YOUR OWN JOB

Jelqerio

May 27, 2008 09:26 PM

That is good news.

Dipankar

May 27, 2008 09:50 PM

What nobody is talking about the fast deals peddled by the Real Estate industry professionals - i.e., your neighborhood Real Estate broker. They quietly pocketed the 7% commission during the boom times in 2003, 2004, 2005...

Bruce

May 27, 2008 10:18 PM

The long and short of it - nobody knows what's about to happen - it's outside their experience and they have no reliable models to work with - it's like trying to predict Katrina's landfall and its effects.

harvey hellerstein

May 28, 2008 12:09 AM

"C'mon, can't anyone else see how flawed his methodology is?"

I'm stupid -- explain it to me.

Learn Your History...Again!

May 28, 2008 12:56 AM

Ballbuster is on the mark 100%! Wake -up
and smell the Sanka or Starbucks or whatever! This misery is far from over. I live and own real estate in Santa Barbara, Calif. (Charlotte S.C. does not impress me!) I have seen two downturns here in two decades (80' & 90's). The U.S. market (and especilaly S.B.) was way over inflated. I was praying five years ago for S.B. to calm down. However, the realtors and mortgage bankers here were hell bent on making this a rocket! Basically, instead of measured growth and firm equity, we lived with "giddy" speculation based on thin air, and nothing more(how much commission will I get when I sell this over priced, "painted lady"). Know what? The air is going to be expelled rather you like it or not. I blame this de-stabilized market on greedy jerks not market mechanisms.

Real Data Caveat

May 28, 2008 01:03 AM

Mr. "We Need Real Data" -

Did you talk about this same flaw in the "methodology" with the Case-Shiller Index in 2006 here when prices went up 78% from 2000-2006 in the Case-Shiller Index?

Over 1990-2000, the Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index was flat, after adjusting for inflation. Over 2000–06, its real value rose 78 percent. The index has dropped about 22 percent in real terms since peaking.

If you did discuss the flaw in the methodology then (and basically stated in 2006 or so that the real estate bull market was overstated by Case-Shiller), then my apologies. If not, then you are a hypocrite.

Larry

May 28, 2008 02:23 AM

"I keep reading about how San Francisco/the Bay Area prices fell 10%+ but yet I have many very-prime friends who can't buy because they are being outbid in today's environment."

Anyone who gets into a bidding war in SF these days is nuts. Option ARMs are just now starting to reach there maximum negative amortization. Very few buyers in the past few years have the dual wager earner six figure salaries required to actually buy this stuff. Most are simply in over there heads with time bomb mortgages.

Concerned ...for whom?

May 28, 2008 03:09 AM

"I'm very concerned that the media is drawing broad conclusions on a reality that is much more sanguine"

You dont have to be if you can afford your current payments. The market is bringing back affordability so that your many very-prime friends who can't buy today will soon be able to bit and not be outbid. I dont see why this is a concern for you unless you are sitting on a bubble yourself.

Concerned ...for whom?

May 28, 2008 03:10 AM

"I'm very concerned that the media is drawing broad conclusions on a reality that is much more sanguine"

You dont have to be if you can afford your current payments. The market is bringing back affordability so that your many very-prime friends who can't buy today will soon be able to bit and not be outbid. I dont see why this is a concern for you unless you are sitting on a bubble yourself.

Mr. T

May 28, 2008 04:08 AM

I pity the knife catching fool who believes real estate cycles last 36 months!

Paul E. Math

May 28, 2008 07:41 AM

We Need Real Data, are you joking?

The best analysts have already gone through the Case-Shiller data and methodology with a fine-toothed comb. Guess what? The Case-Shiller indices are incredibly accurate and 100% valid.

It is important to understand the difference between anecdotal information, such as your 'very-prime' friends and, on the other hand, empirical data. Empirical data aggregates all the individual experiences and provides meaningful information based on averages and medians.

You are right that the Case-Shiller averages don't necessarily apply to all situations - I hope noone thinks that they do. But the soundness of the methodology and data shows that these declines ARE the most common experience, they definitely demonstrate a strong trend. Ignore them at your own peril.

whereRbuyers

May 28, 2008 08:05 AM

Are there any housing buyers out there? I confess I have been seriously looking to buy an investment property in the Winchester VA market for the last two months. Winchester is 70 miles west of Washington DC. A relatively small portion of the population commutes into DC.

The amount of real estate on the market is truly amazing; however there are buyers out there. The houses with reasonable asking prices are quickly purchased. What really amazes me is that there are soooo many empty houses. Where did all of the people that occupy these house go? Are they victims of the higher cost of commuting? Are they victims of the drop is the construction industry? There is a lot of inventory out there, but I imagine that it will be reduced to normal levels eventually, but it will take many years. This is not an earth shattering prediction, just common sense.

Phil

May 28, 2008 09:19 AM

The direction ofthe housing market as defined by these economist are baseless without some kind of understanding of how their conclusions or derived. I rarely read any prediction that includes the basis for their conclusions. I am a real estate appraiser and have been for 30 years. In all that time there has been a basic relationship between the median priced home and median income. In my view, real estate prices will continue to decline until that relationship falls back into a balance. I live in Southern California where the historical ratio has been 4 to 4.5. That is four times the median income should equal the value of a median priced home. At the peak of the market that ratio reached 12. It currently stands at 9. Still has a long way to fall to stabilize.

Jan

May 28, 2008 10:47 AM

Saved a ton by listening to case-hiller, they're right on the money! We have great data, you just don't like what it says.

Mark McGlothlin

May 28, 2008 11:28 AM

Here’s another spin on the data. The challenge with Case-Shiller is that you can’t infer the health of every real estate market by looking at 10, 20, or even 100 markets. The call about the health of markets has to be done market by market looking at lots of detailed data. Yes, there are markets out there that are disasters, still over-valued, and with significant correction yet to come to restore rational affordability. In those markets inventory is climbing and will continue to do so until prices fall to levels that buyers move back in. However, there are real estate markets that have done just fine, have balanced inventory, and despite the credit disaster homes are still selling and appreciating at reasonable rates.

Real estate markets have and always will go through cycles where values tread up and down. We don’t need more harping on how bad it is, we need some preaching and teaching on the fundamentals of market cycles and how to buy and sell no matter what cycle you’re in.

Mark McGlothlin, MD
RedfishEmergingMarkets.com

Diomedes

May 28, 2008 02:06 PM

As a resident of the SF Bay Area, I just wanted to provide my feedback with regards to the statement pertaining to "bidding wars" occuring in San Francisco.

As another poster aluded to, all busts move from the outlying areas inward. Stockton, Tracy, Gilroy, etc were the first to feel the pinch. Then San Jose and its suburbs. It is merely a matter of time before the bust is felt in Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Gatos, etc.

One point I do want to make since I still see perpetual denial for residents of the SF Bay Area: one of the major reasons we have not (yet) experienced as much of a downturn as other areas is due to the fact that we are not a subprime market. However, we are a market that still utilizes the same subprime concepts, except in a prime capacity. By that I mean we are the option-ARM and interest-only capital of the world. The primary difference between our loan types and subprime's is the term limits. Subprime loans are of the 2/28 type whereby you have 2 years of "teaser rate" followed by 28 years of adjusted rate and principle.
However, when an I/O mortgage or option-ARM is used in the SF Bay Area, because we are an area of more credit worthly individuals with higher salaries, the terms of our loans are of the 3/27, 5/25, 7/23 type.
There are some nice charts demonstrating this disparity that you can take a look at. The point is: if we peaked in housing in mid to late 2005, then the issue of the option-ARM and I/O resets will not start to become readily apparant until mid to late 2008. Once that debacle begins to unfold, the true nature of the housing bubble for the SF Bay Area will become more than obvious.

dave

May 28, 2008 02:45 PM

> Case-Shiller again?!? C'mon, can't anyone else see how flawed his methodology is?

He's methodology is widely accept and well-proven. If you think there are flaws in it, start listing those flaws in detail. Vague accusations mean nothing.

> Generalizing the state of the market from his bad data (and worse conclusions) is driving a state of fear that doesn't need to exist.

1. What evidence is there that the data is bad? The data is just the actual sale of prices as registered in official county records.
2. Anyone who thinks real estate is going to be a good investment or a good purchase in the next 2 years is an idiot. It's not fear. It's reality. I'd argue that it's hope that prices will continue to fall dramatically that will eventually solve all these problems. The fall of prices is the solution; the bubble was the problem.

> Yes, there are pockets of horribly declining values in America. No, it doesn't apply to all markets.

The argument that all real estate is local is bulllshit. When the housing bubble and burst spans continents, it's not local; it's international. The fact that the money markets are global makes real estate global. Europeans were speculating in Florida's houses. That ain't local.

I'm convinced that you are a desperate seller trying offload a house or several, and you are hoping your lies will attract some fools so you can save yourself by screwing them.

Sean

May 28, 2008 03:19 PM

Yes, this is absolutely ridiculous to say that Case-Schiller is bad data. Case-Schiller, like any abstraction of reality, has some problems. But it is the most accurate price index available. OFHEO and NAR both have political agendas and their data reflects this. Notice how a lot of industry insiders are railing against the new rules to separate appraisers from the back door fraud kick backs of mortgage brokers, real estate agents, and even originating banks hoping to pass on worthless paper for a profit. These people are saying that we can't afford to have appraisals without corruption. It would bankrupt the system. We need real estate agents and mortgage brokers pressuring appraisers to inflate appraisals (or not ever work again), or prices would drop too fast and banks wouldn't be able to accomplish their alchemy where they turn dirt into a AAA bond.

The Bay Area will not be immune to this. It can't. Even here where people have money and median incomes are much higher than LA, a significant majority of buyers have teaser rates on interest only loans, option ARMs, and other "affordability products." The fundamental nature of financing in the Bay Area assumes at least 8% annual appreciation or it can't work. It has to collapse.

Most people up to $500K a year income earners have bad loans. The higher the income, the bigger the loan, but the terms still are designed to put off the pain of paying interest and principal. That by definition is speculation. It's speculation that prices will rise faster than the interest expense and carry costs. If they don't, you either go bankrupt, or you have to liquidate other investments and take a big loss on your real estate.

Real estate is dead and no amount of funny money CPR is going to bring it back. The only smart question to ask right now is whether all of these freshly printed credit is going to create another bubble somewhere. If yes, where? And how do I get in early to make money before all the stupid people take big loans to get in after me (the point at which it's time to sell)?

The Fed's problem is that all the loose money keeps flowing into commodities. I'm scared to get in to that now because that's not the sort of bubble the Fed likes to create. They like bubbles that create jobs, even if making something useless that will eventually wind up in landfills (like the millions of abandoned suburban tract houses).

If there's no new bubble coming, we're going to have a decade or longer of really bad hurting. But if they manage to create another bubble, in a decade, we'll have to abandon this country altogether in a hyperinflation orgy of destruction.

We'd be better off taking our medicine now, but that's just not the way the American mind works. It's all, "hey, don't be a downer, lever up and borrow to speculate! Prosperity is just around the corner!"

Shabba

May 28, 2008 04:47 PM

Here is a website that summarizes listings prices from the mls websites by major metro area. It's just unbelievable to me that index after index says housing prices are tanking and there is no indication they are getting better but someone will come out and say that the methodology is flawed so you can't trust the conclusion.

Give me a freakin break. How obvious does it have to be?

www.housingtracker.net

John from Reno

May 29, 2008 01:56 AM

"What is Real Data"
Does the writer know what "sanguine" means?

ballbuster

May 29, 2008 04:57 AM

To: Mark McGlothlin, MD, RedfishEmergingMarkets.com.
I am FarkingMcGoofing, MD, PhD, FD, AID, Ditto-tee-D, with a Fiddle-tee-D. I am CEO of RedHerringDepartingMarkets.com. Check it out! man! Now I aint "harping on how bad it is," but I is doing some needed "preaching and teaching on the fundamentals of market cycles and how to buy and sell no matter what cycle you’re in." I is a flipper-gone-wild-real estate agent/investor, you know what I mean, man? I dice them, slice them, and mix them up real good for them folks at Wall St and the appraiser who help me scam everybody. And of course, I "preach and teach" everybody to buy real estate because nobody ever lose money "investing" in real estate. Let me preach you some truth: real estate is the greatest investment since sliced bread. That's why all the home builders were building homes as fast as they can and selling them as fast as they can instead of holding on to them, or renting them, or selling them further in the future for higher prices. The reason for their stupidity? Perhaps the big builders have love in their hearts for us home buyers and hence gladly sold homes to us so that we can make a killing? Remember, God aint making any more real estate on earth! Buy now! Operators are waiting for your call!

X

May 29, 2008 05:21 AM

There's one metric that can be applied to understand how low the price of a house can go. Basically, commercial real-estate developers won't invest in a property unless it can earn annual revenues that are 10% or more of the value of the property. So if your house can earn 60K a year after expenses (5K a month rent) then its worth 600K. That's the price when speculation is removed from the picture. That is the real estate pricing in places where there is limited speculation (e.g. Cleveland)

Mark McGlothlin

May 29, 2008 06:32 PM

Ballbuster – as you are a self confessed well educated real estate investor (nice credentials by the way), you do understand that all real estate asset classes go up and then come down as they progress over time through a real estate market cycle. Single family homes and condos, apartments, retail, hospitality, industrial – all real estate asset classes have sailed through the up and down phases of the cycle for decades, and will continue to do so. Different markets and different asset classes move through the cycle out of sync – that’s one of the critical issues that weaken the power of the Case-Shiller data; some markets will have values headed up, some will be headed down. My point is simple, you can’t look at the Case Shiller data and extrapolate it to every market in the country – you need to research a given market’s specific data to understand that market as best you can.

Btw, FosterKM offered some good contrarian advice; as a “real estate flipper” you should be shopping for values out there.

D

May 29, 2008 07:07 PM

Case-Schiller is flawed in that 7 of the 20 markets it covers are in the 4 worst-hit states in the country. California (L.A., San Diego, San Francico), Florida (Tampa & Miami), Nevada (Vegas), and Michigan (Detroit).

Add in that another benchmark city is Cleveland, which has also had a horrible economic since before the bubble burst, and another is Phoenix, which was hugely inflated as well, and it should be pretty obvious that the index overstates the national real estate market, either positively or negatively.

The fact is that this supposedly "national" index is almost exclusively made up of major metropolitan areas in 3 areas, the West Coast area (SF, LA, San Diego, Phoenix, Vegas, Portland, and Seattle), the metro SouthEast (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte) and the Industrial NE/Greatlakes (Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York). Only Denver, Dallas, and DC don't really fit in any of those categories, and all 3 are noted for being bubble-prone.

The fact is that the index would be a much better barometer if it included some mid-range cities such as Pueblo, CO; Talos, NM; Nashville, TN; and Boise, ID.. and perhaps even a few smaller cities than those.

The fact is that real estate sucks in Calfifornia where I live now, but if you move out of the worst hit states and major metro areas, it's not nearly the disaster the news is reporting it be. It isn't good, but it isn't horrible either.

Ron

May 30, 2008 02:37 AM

still have 60% drop before the market starts going again

bruce

June 2, 2008 08:01 PM

I'd like to restart the topic of the flow of "price-decline-waves" as housing enters a down cycle. (mentioned by Jim D on 5-27.) I happen to live in the SF Bay area. Here is what is on my mind.

Is it clear from the last housing recession (and others) that the price declines first strike in lower priced areas and eventually spread to the higher priced markets? Has the opposite trend not been seen? In this case the catalyst seems to have been with sub-prime loans, but in past downturns it has been different.

I live in a "OK" area of San Fran that has seen about 12% decline from peak, but the area 2 blocks from my home is still at peak. Is it certain that the good neighborhoods (Noe Valley, etc.) will get dragged down next?

( cool headed discussion please :-) )

IAS360

June 4, 2008 09:29 AM

IAS360 House Price Index Provides First Monthly View of Housing Price Trends Based on Neighborhood Level Data.

Integrated Asset Services (IAS), a leader in default management and residential collateral valuation, just launched its monthly-reported IAS360 House Price Index http://www.iasreo.com/ias360.html

The new Index represents the industry’s first clear representation of U.S. housing market trends at a county level. IAS360 House Price Index is a comprehensive housing index tracking monthly change in the median sales price of detached single-family residences in more than 15,000 “neighborhoods” across the U.S. This data is then rolled up to report on the changes in 360 counties, nine census divisions, four regions, and the nation overall. The timeliness of the data, which is based on all arms-length transactions occurring in underlying neighborhoods, makes the IAS360 the leading indicator for housing price trends in the U.S. April Index: http://www.iasreo.com/ias3600408.html

IAS360

June 4, 2008 05:56 PM

IAS360 House Price Index Provides First Monthly View of Housing Price Trends Based on Neighborhood Level Data.

Integrated Asset Services (IAS), a leader in default management and residential collateral valuation, just launched its monthly-reported IAS360 House Price Index http://www.iasreo.com/ias360.html

The new Index represents the industry’s first clear representation of U.S. housing market trends at a county level. IAS360 House Price Index is a comprehensive housing index tracking monthly change in the median sales price of detached single-family residences in more than 15,000 “neighborhoods” across the U.S. This data is then rolled up to report on the changes in 360 counties, nine census divisions, four regions, and the nation overall. The timeliness of the data, which is based on all arms-length transactions occurring in underlying neighborhoods, makes the IAS360 the leading indicator for housing price trends in the U.S. April Index: http://www.iasreo.com/ias3600408.html

Kimball Corson

July 7, 2008 05:09 PM

The good economists have not been screwing up here, Jack. They have been doing quite well, in fact. See works of Martin Feldstein, Robert Reich and Nouriel Roubini, for examples. See too the article, "The Current Economic Debate" I posted on my website at http://sailblogs.com/member/thewanderer You are just understandably confused and I explain why in that article.

Went to cash in Oct 07

September 9, 2008 04:10 PM

So, we are a little bit farther down the road from the May 08 comments...now that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been nationalized, making the 11 Billion of preferred stock they sold in Nov 07 worthless, and making their common stock worthless....and with unemployment numbers now at 6% and climbing....I'd like to see the "everything's fine!" commentors above repost their opinions.

This is a global recession, triggered by the good-ol boy cronyism of the Republican administration who refused to regulate their buddies on Wall Street...and are still refusing to regulate the Enron Loophole markets on Oil. Paulson just bailed out China and Japan by guaranteeing their FNM and FRE bonds, while destroying the US pension funds that bought the FNM and FRE preferred stock.

Wake up, people. GW has bankrupted this country, and China and Japan now hold the trump cards to Federal decision making.

Paulson just protected foreign investors over small US investors...just like he protected Wall Street by prohibiting short sales on Wall Street stocks.

This is NOT Capitalism, and it's not Socialism........it is Cronyism.

While China, Australia, Japan, Brazil, India, etc all have laws to protect their citizens from the Global avarice of the greedy few, the USA gives away the value of this country to foreign sovereign funds, and to local billionaires on Wall Street.

Again: This is not Capitalism or Socialism.......it is cronyism. The benefit of the very few at the expense of the very many.

Wake up.

We Need Real Data Is Back

February 6, 2009 03:27 PM

Are you people for real? Seriously, how do you argue that just because Case-Shiller is the best available data set, that it's accurate. If I give you a lot of bad data, but it's the only data set available, you're really going to base your decisions on it? Don't question my logic with weak logic like that.
Second, I checked out the IAS360 data and it is much better than Shillers. So, it turns out that there is a better data set and it does mirror my actual experience with an actual market in the U.S. Yes, Virginia, prices are down. No, Virginia, they are not down 30%+ across the U.S. I think the people who rely on Case-Shiller data do so are those that do not own property and are trying to further an agenda of lower prices so they can buy. Which is understandable, everyone likes to talk their book.

Megs

May 26, 2009 04:26 PM

In Metro Detroit we are back to 1995 prices, so look forward to that. For those who think they are "better" or "different" that Detroit don't be so certain. Remember, it was just 2 years ago that our unemployment rate was lower than yours is now, our home prices started to slide 1 to 2 years earlier than everyone elses is all. So if want a crystal ball watch Detroit, if your ego does not get in the way.

Thank you for your interest. This blog is no longer active.

 

About

BusinessWeek editors Chris Palmeri, Prashant Gopal and Peter Coy chronicle the highs and lows of the housing and mortgage markets on their Hot Property blog. In print and online, the Hot Property team first wrote about the potential downside of lenders pushing riskier, "option ARM" mortgages and the rise in mortgage fraud back in 2005—well ahead of many other media outlets. In 2008, Hot Property bloggers finished #1 in a ranking of the world's top 100 "most powerful property people" by the British real estate website Global edge. Hot Property was named among the 25 most influential real estate blogs of 2007 by Inman News.

BW Mall - Sponsored Links

Buy a link now!