Magazine cover curse evaded--so far

I can just imagine when in a year or two, we look back and wonder how anyone could have believed that rates were low at the time and wished they had taken advantage of them at the time. ;-)

So far, you are looking pretty good! And if we slip into a recession by year's end, you will look even better, rate wise. Typically, 6 mos to a year is a good amount of time for these

If you look at the past examples of the mag cover ind, you will see its not infallible -- but its been pretty dan good!

If you click onm the link on my name, then go to the Google search box and cut & paste "magazine cover indicator," you can check out quite a few examples!

Maybe the new rate would be 4.3% without your story.

Six months to a year seems to be a good answer. That gives plenty of time for any short-term "fad" effects to fade away and enough time for "threats" to emerge to challenge the story's thesis.

The three main ingredients for low rates are likely to "linger" for some time: an excess of liquidity, the Fed having a "moderately" effective handle on core inflation, and a world awash with overvalued assets that cause even modestly conservative investors to have at least a moderate bias towards safety.

-- Jack Krupansky

Low Rates? Last I looked our Prime Rate was 2% higher than Canada,and almost 6% higher than Japan. What's low cost in the long term is leveraged in the short term.
Which is safer: a 5% bond or a 5% interest rate?
You could loose in both cases, and still have the safest investment vehicle.

The 10 year yield seems to have made a bottom just shy of 4.5% -- its now over 4.6% and it appears to be running towards 4.7%

Still, thats relatively low ...

Barry,

Prime fixed mortgage rates are still low as well. The day is still young though

A good period to determine if a magazine cover caught the zeitgeist of a given phenomena just as it crested is broad and variable. Typically, I would guess anywhere from 6 months to 2 years.

Here we are, 3 months later, and the 10 year rate is kissing 5%!

You shouldn't taunt your touting.
You wrote "low" 4 times? come one, you were asking for it ;P

In some years this cover will probably be as infamous as "The death of equities" from 1979, the low was retested in 82, so the cover indicator can work anywhere between a couple of weeks to 3/4 years in a good LT bottoming/topping process.