Mac Sales Down? Hold On Just A Minute!

Posted by: Arik Hesseldahl on December 16

Today’s Wall Street Journal focuses on how according to the latest NPD figures, Mac sales in November as compared to November of last year are down by 1%, and thus rushes to ring the alarm bells: Apple is being dragged down by the recession.

But by nearly any measure November of 2008 is difficult to compare to November of 2007, and I don’t care what aspect of the retail business you’re in. Laying the recessionary pressures aside for minute, let’s just look at the calendar. Thanksgiving this year, fell on Nov. 27, putting Black Friday on Nov. 28. Last year, Thanksgiving fell on Nov. 22, Black Friday on Nov. 23. The difference? Eight post-Thanksgiving shopping days in November of 2007 versus three in November of 2008.

Secondly, you can’t consider November sales without first considering October sales. Apple refreshed the MacBook and MacBook Pro notebook lines on Oct. 14, and thus saw sales surge in that month by 28%. Between the pent-up demand in October, and the shorter shopping season on in November, its a wonder that the November-to-November comparison wasn’t even weaker.

The bad news out of the NPD numbers: Desktop sales are weakening, and fell 35%. But then whose desktop sales aren’t falling off a cliff when notebooks are so much more practical? MacBooks account for about two-thirds Macs sold, and will probably make up for the desktop shortfall.

What’s unclear is December demand. You can chalk up the November decline as an anomaly citing all the reasons above. The results so far suggest that Mac sales will grow this holiday quarter versus last year. Given October’s surge, December could turn out weak and Apple could still finish the quarter ahead, but it would telegraph greater difficulties heading into the 2009 calendar year.

Additionally, as Dan Frommer at Silicon Alley Insider points out, NPD sales data doesn’t account for enterprise sales, which as we all know are, despite being insignificant versus sales of Windows machines, growing. NPD also misses sales outside the U.S.

What to expect from Apple? The pressure is on for Apple to announce an inexpensive Netbook-class notebook machine. Perhaps. But remember it just pulled the trigger on its MacBook Air, which is for all intents and purposes its answer to the “ultraportable” category.

Expect a Apple to bring new attention on the Mac Mini, Apple’s tiny, no-frills desktop machine which sells for a starting price of $599. It’s in desperate need of an update — MacRumors says it has been 497 days since its last refresh — and it has been intermittently rumored to be on the chopping block for retirement. But an update and an aggressive price cut to say, $499, or even $399, would make the Mac Mini the ultimate machine for the recession.

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