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Housing Numbers Continue to Surprise


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September 27, 2005

Housing Numbers Continue to Surprise

Amey Stone

This week has brought the latest monthly home sales data from the National Association of Realtors. Reading these releases is starting to be a bit of a yawn -- sales weren't quite at record levels, but darn near close to it.

Today we got new home sales figures. Sales slipped a bit to 1.24 million homes (annualized) from 1.37 in July. The slip came after a surge in July, so it isn't meaningful, notes High Frequency Economics. Plus, as the Valhalla, New York-based research firm reports, "Recent mortgage applications data suggest sales will run at about 1.35 million for the next few months; there is no sign of any trend weakening."

Monday's existing home sales showed a 2% rise to 7.29 million annualized -- the second highest level ever. Prices jumped 16.2% over last year -- the fastest rise in 26 years.

High Frequency Economics believes new home price gains are lagging existing homes because of an oversupply of new construction. The dip is simply an inventory correction, much like the one the manufacturing sector is experiencing, the firm concludes.

05:09 PM

Economy

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Tracked on September 28, 2005 03:10 AM

They are right on. Consistently I have seen a 34% rise in my local market of Tampa Bay.

Posted by: R.J. Neel at September 28, 2005 03:11 PM

Who do they suprise?

Mortgage rate up, mortgage rate down....

Look, this whole thing is a game. People need to remember the data is from transactions of a few months behind.

How many seasoned realtors are buying houses at the advertized prices...NADA

Posted by: dave at September 28, 2005 06:32 PM

What nonsense !! The existing home sales are a leading indicator since they are based on sales made 2-3 months back. The new home sales is more of a leading indicator.

Posted by: erg at September 30, 2005 03:40 PM

To correct --- existing home sales are a trailing indicator, new home sales a leading indicator.

Posted by: erg at September 30, 2005 03:41 PM

The market will continue to see strong home sales and rising prices for some time to come.

You only have to look at the housing markets in many other western countries, which are ahead of the US, who have seen property booms continue, until prices have averaged around 5 times income on a national level.

Posted by: John Torn at October 2, 2005 08:14 AM

The median house prices in the US are probably around 5 times median income now.

The US has a population density far below most other Western countries, too (except Canada and Australia) so housing prices are not necessarily moving in locksteps. And FWIW, the British market has falled for at least a year now.

Posted by: erg at October 3, 2005 01:09 PM

John:

Are you talking about England, where the housing market has been in tatters for over a year? Or Austrailia, where housing prices have dropped 16% in the past year in Sydney alone?

I'm not sure how this relates to the local income levels, but it's just a matter of time before overseas troubles hit our shores. They always do.

Posted by: Wes at October 5, 2005 11:15 AM

You only have to look at the housing markets in many other western countries, which are ahead of the US, who have seen property booms continue, until prices have averaged around 5 times income on a national level.

Posted by: Saha at December 28, 2005 09:10 AM

Mortgage rate up, mortgage rate down....

Look, this whole thing is a game. People need to remember the data is from transactions of a few months behind.

How many seasoned realtors are buying houses at the advertized prices

Posted by: Denn at December 28, 2005 09:28 AM

Who do they suprise?

Posted by: Ruckus at April 2, 2006 04:32 PM


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