) to hold from buy.
Analyst Katherine Egbert says the company preannounced a huge downside for the first quarter, with total revenue down 17% from expectations, licenses down 33%, and earnings per share off by 4 cents.
She says the company tied weakness to "paralysis" in European sales, which she thinks arose out of integration of Staffware, Tibco salesforces, and management teams for the first time since Tibco acquired Staffware in June 2004.
Along with the downgrade, Egbert cuts her fiscal 2005 (ending November) estimate to 30 cents earnings per share on $450 million in revenue from 37 cents earnings per share on $521 million in revenue.
For the first quarter, she lowers her estimate to 5 cents earnings per share on $101 million in revenue from 8 cents earnings per share on $118 million in revenue. She sets a new $7.50 target.