Markets & Finance

Price Trends Are Still Positive

Posted on November 11, 2004

By Paul Cherney This comment looks similar to yesterday's because the technical condition of the market has not really changed: the trend for prices remains positive. A retracement would be natural at any time. End of day momentum measures suggest that any short-term price weakness should attract buyers, not sellers, so downside risk should be limited.

A buyers capitulation might have to occur to signal a greater potential for some retracement in prices. For a buyers capitulation I would have to see a day of gains while the total NYSE trading volume for the day was 1.75 billion or higher and the trade day was accompanied by a sharp drop in the VXO to a close under 12.60, that might be a sign that short-term buying demand has been sated.

Any price weakness would NOT change my expectations that a retracement should be limited in depth and duration.

The NASDAQ resistance 2049-2094, resistance thickens 2079-2094, next resistance 2108-2153.83.

Immediate intraday NASDAQ support is 2055-2025.71, support thickens 2036-2027.69. Next intraday support is 2020.67-2002.

S&P 500 intraday support: 1177-1160, support is thick 1170-1160, the next layer of organized intraday support is 1147-1138.50.

The S&P 500 has thick resistance 1185-1226.

We are at the beginning of what has been historically, on average, the 3 best performing months of the year -- November through January. Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

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