Analyst Mark Kalinowski says some of the risks (including sluggish sales and rising food costs) were ones he highlighted two days ago, after Brinker revised its fiscal 2005 (Jan.) earnings per share goal downward. Brinker owns and operates Chili's, Maggiano's Little Italy, On the Border Mexican Grill, and other restaurants.
He notes that the lower earnings per share forecast doesn't include any potential effect of a possible change in accounting for contingent convertible securities. He estimates the risk to earnings per share of 12 cents to 14 cents, annualized.
Kalinowski cut the $2.33 fiscal 2005 earnings per share estimate to $2.25, and cut the $2.68 fiscal 2006 estimate to $2.58. Also, he cut the $40 target to $36 to give effect to lower earnings per share estimates, and the slight reduction in his target p-e multiple.