We might be in for a taste of the summer doldrums on Friday. The average change in price as of the close for the S&P 500 for all the Fridays in the data sample was a small gain of 0.19%.
About 71% of the time, the change for the day (up or down) has been less than 1%.
The study showed that 64.5% of the time, the S&P 500 lost ground as of the close on the Friday before Memorial day weekend.
Something that might not be readily obvious: if the average performance was a gain of 0.19%, but the index actually lost ground 64.5% of the time, then this means that there are occasions that can can see outsized gains. Of the 9 times that prices moved more than 1% from the close of the previous session, 7 of them were gainers:
High end-of-day Put/Call ratios again on Thursday should keep a floor under prices on Friday.
The VIX (market volatility index) is probably going to have stay below its 10-day exponential moving average to confirm any rise in prices on Friday. Near Thursday's close, the VIX's 10-day exponential moving average was 22.55.
Historical odds still favor that the S&P 500 should post a close of 911 or lower. Longer-term indicators based on weekly bars are in configurations which usually do not see appreciable upside, so in the longer-term (more than the next trading day), sideways markets might unfold and the bottom edge of the sideways price band might not have been discovered yet.
The S&P 500 has a layer of
support at 925-912. The end-of-day charts clearly show substantial support at 910-862.
The S&P 500 has
resistance at 935-948, with a focus of 938-945.
The Nasdaq has a band of resistance at 1489-1519.00; inside this band, smaller pockets of resistance are 1499-1507.96 and 1507-1519.00, which makes the 1507-1508 area a focus of resistance. Next well-organized resistance is 1534-1551 but technically, the resistance above 1519 starts at 1526 and higher.
Nasdaq support is 1478-1451, with thick support at 1471-1461. Cherney is chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's