) and Barrick Gold (ABX
). Newmont is up from 17 last July to 32 on June 4, 2002--before easing to 28 on June 19. Barrick, at 13 in November, rallied to 23 in late May--before slipping to 19 on June 19. Michael Du-rose of Morgan Stanley says the recent drop in gold stocks is healthy, given the group's upswing year-to-date. The XAU gold index, which tracks a basket of stocks, is up 38% this year, and the metal has risen from $280 an ounce to $320. Durose says the weak dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, low real interest rates, and industry consolidation are positive for gold.
Carino predicts the price will leap to $350 this year and rise to $400 an ounce in 2003. At those prices, Newmont and Barrick will double, he figures. With that, he says, "gold will again gain acceptance as a solid investment vehicle." By Gene G. Marcial