By Paul Cherney Intermediate term technical measures are negative (these are momentum based and will lag turns in the market by 2 to 5 trade days).
I think the markets are going to have to spend another day or two consolidating close to current levels before making a move.
The Investor's Intelligence percentage of bearish newletter writers was 23.7% this week; this is the third consecutive week of readings under the 25% mark. Markets often have trouble establishing signficant trends higher when there are so few bears. It would not surprise anyone to see a short swift dip which exhausts sellers in the short-run and then reverses.
The NASDAQ has intermediate term support of 1965-1853. There is a focus of support within this zone at 1883-1867.
The NASDAQ has immediate intraday support 1925-1913 then 1911-1902. Considerable resistance is 1942-1985.83 with the first focus of resistance 1942-1966. There is a thicker layer of resistance 1966-1986 and then stacked right on top of the 1986, there is resistance 1977-2018 which makes the 1977-1986 level a focus of resistance. Upside appears limited right now. Any advance will probably be labored, full of fits and starts and unable to post significant gains.
The S&P 500 index has a small layer of immediate intraday support 1129-1123. Well-defined intermediate term support is 1111-1052. The index has resistance 1138-1151 which is part of a broader band of resistance 1138-1159. There is nothing definitive in terms of direction for prices in the NASDAQ or the S&P 500 in the technical indicators I look at (right now). I think prices will drift lower on Monday without a big move and without capitulation as measured by excessive put/call ratios. Cherney is market analyst for Standard & Poor's