An economist whose early career was at the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve, Nicholas P. Sargen is the global market strategist for J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
ON THE DANGERS OF LOOKING BACKWARD
The risk-return profile is better in the U.S. In the medium term, it's hard to beat it. But if you were a Japanese investor in the '80s, you would have said the same thing: "Why should we invest outside Japan?"
Pension fund consultants are still blessing the international diversification story. Their view is very long-term. I say we're going to put you into international markets, but not as much. The next thing we try to do is to be opportunistic and tactical.
As you move to a global marketplace, valuations tend to be more uniform. Japan used to have huge multiples, and the view was that Japan had unique characteristics.