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The Week Ahead


Business Week Index

THE WEEK AHEAD

THE WEEK AHEAD

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Tuesday, Nov. 21, 8:30 a.m. -- The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services

is expected to have widened to $9.8 billion in September, after having narrowed

sharply in August to $8.8 billion, from $11.2 billion in July. That's the

median projection of economists surveyed by MMS International, a unit of The

McGraw-Hill Companies. Exports are expected to have edged up in September, to

$65.5 billion, after a large increase in August. Export growth has picked up,

partly because the drag from earlier weakness in the Mexican and Canadian

economies is easing up. September imports likely rose faster than exports,

hitting $75 billion, partly reflecting a rebound in oil imports. If the MMS

projection is on the mark, trade was a neutral factor in third-quarter economic

growth.

FEDERAL BUDGET

Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2 p.m. -- The federal budget in October is expected to

have begun the 1996 fiscal year by posting a deficit of $29 billion. That would

be slightly below last October's red ink of $31.3 billion. The fiscal 1995

deficit ended up at $163.8 billion, down from $203.1 billion in 1994. The

monthly budget data for the coming year should more closely follow last year's

numbers, now that deficit improvement due to the upswing in the business cycle

is beginning to wane.

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

Friday, Nov. 24, 8:30 a.m. -- New filings for unemployment insurance for the

week ended Nov. 18 probably stood close to their recent four-week average of

about 365,000. The MMS survey had expected claims for the week of Nov. 11 to

dip slightly to 370,000, from 375,000 the week before. The four-week average

has risen to its highest level since the summer. However, the summer increase

in new filings reflected temporary shutdowns in the auto industry, so the

recent rise in claim activity suggests increasing slack in the labor markets.

NOTE: Due to the government shutdown, release dates are all tentative.


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