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Business Week Index: The Week Ahead


Business Week Index: THE WEEK AHEAD

BusinessWeek Index: THE WEEK AHEAD

FEDERAL BUDGET

Monday, July 24 -- The Treasury Dept. will probably report a surplus of $15.5

billion in June, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by MMS

International, one of the McGraw-Hill Companies. Receipts likely rose last

month since quarterly tax payments are due in the last month of each quarter.

Washington was in the black by $14.8 billion in June, 1994.

EMPLOYMENT COSTS

Tuesday, July 25, 8:30 a.m. -- Wages and benefits in the private sector

probably increased by 0.8% in the second quarter, faster than the 0.6% gain in

the first quarter. That's suggested by the recent pickup in wage growth. Still,

for the year ended in the second quarter, compensation likely grew by 2.9%, the

same modest advance as in the first.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Tuesday, July 25, 10 a.m. -- The Conference Board's index of consumer

confidence likely bounced back to a reading of 94 in July after the index

dropped to 92.8 in June from 102 in May. A stronger job market is boosting

consumers' spirits.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS

Thursday, July 27, 8:30 a.m. -- New orders for durable goods probably rose 0.5%

in June, says the MMS survey. Orders jumped an unexpected 2.7% in May, after

falling for three months in a row.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Friday, July 28, 8:30 a.m. -- The MMS median forecast expects that the economy

grew at an annual rate of 0.5% in the second quarter. But the forecasts range

from a 1% drop to a 2.7% rise, which would equal the solid increase in

first-quarter GDP. Slower inventory growth and a wider foreign trade deficit

probably held down GDP growth. Demand, though slower than in 1994, should show

no signs of slipping to a recessionary crawl. Inflation, as measured by the GDP

deflator, likely rose at a 2.8% annual rate from 3.1% in the first quarter.


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