About That Engineering Gap...

Is the U.S. really falling behind China and India in education? Not really. Take a closer look at the data

By Vivek Wadhwa

There are few topics that generate as much heated debate as outsourcing. One side argues that globalization will lead to greater innovation and prosperity, the other says we are increasing unemployment and misery. Everyone agrees that what's at stake is America's standard of living and world economic leadership.

One would expect that the numbers used in such debate would be defensible and grounded. Yet researchers at Duke University have determined that some of the most cited statistics on engineering graduates are inaccurate. Statistics that say the U.S. is producing 70,000 engineers a year vs. 350,000 from India and 600,000 from China aren't valid, the Duke team says. We're actually graduating more engineers than India, and the Chinese numbers aren't quite what they seem. In short, America is far ahead by almost any measure, and we're a long way from losing our edge.

Unfortunately, the message students are getting is that many engineering jobs will be outsourced and U.S. engineers have a bleak future of higher unemployment and lower remuneration. This could result in a self-fulfilling prophecy, as fearful young scholars stick to supposedly "outsourcing-proof" professions. In other words, we have more to fear from fear itself.

RESEARCH FELLOWS.

Having been a tech exec and co-producer of a Bollywood film, I've long been at the center of the outsourcing debate. I wrote about how my own son called me unpatriotic and argued that I was doing wrong for America (see, BW Online, 3/12/04, "My Son, It's Time to Talk of Outsourcing..."). Yet, in my new life in academia, I couldn't answer the first question my engineering students asked (see BW Online, 9/14/05, "Degrees of Achievement"). They wondered what courses would lead to the best job prospects and what jobs were "outsourcing proof."

I knew that with a master's of engineering management from Duke, these students were destined to be leaders, and that leadership can never be outsourced. Yet I was no expert on engineering majors across the world. Dean Kristina Johnson of Duke's Pratt School of Engineering suggested we research the topic.

I enlisted the help of Professor Gary Gereffi, a world renowned sociologist and Duke outsourcing expert, and we picked a team of our brightest students. We set out to compare international engineering degrees and analyze employment opportunities. As you do in any study, we started by assessing the facts. The problem was that facts were in short supply.

BIPARTISAN CONSENSUS.

In recent years, the worldwide media has cited graduation numbers that show a huge imbalance of engineering graduates coming out of Chinese and Indian schools. One commonly cited set of figures is 600,000 engineers graduated annually from institutions of higher education in China, 350,000 from India, and 70,000 from the U.S.

Top business publications have repeated these numbers. So have political leaders across the spectrum -- from Ted Kennedy to Newt Gingrich. The Congressional Record references these numbers. Even the prestigious National Academies issued a press release asking federal support to bolster U.S. competitiveness, citing these numbers as part of its argument.

The U.S. numbers were easy to verify. The National Center for Education and the American Society of Engineering Education provided useful data. However, international numbers were a different story.

LOST IN TRANSLATION.

Several reports cited the Ministry of Education in China and the National Association of Software & Service Companies (NASSCOM) in India. Yet none of the reports issued by these authorities that we read matched the numbers being reported.

So we called registrars of the largest universities in India and China.