Bloomberg News

China Feb. New Loans Were Less-Than-Estimated 620 Billion Yuan

March 10, 2013

China’s new local-currency lending was 620 billion yuan ($99.6 billion) in February and M2 money supply climbed 15.2 percent from a year earlier, the People’s Bank of China said on its website.

Aggregate financing in the month was 1.07 trillion yuan, the central bank said today, compared with a record 2.54 trillion yuan the previous month.

New loans compared with the median 700 billion yuan estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 28 economists and 1.07 trillion yuan in January. The median forecast for money supply was a gain of 14.9 percent after a 15.9 percent increase in January and 13 percent a year ago.

Estimates of five economists for February aggregate financing ranged from 1.4 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan. The figure was 1.04 trillion yuan a year earlier.

China’s bank loans as a share of funding in the economy fell to a record low last year, central bank data show, highlighting the growth of alternative financing channels that have prompted warnings of rising credit risks. New yuan bank lending was 8.2 trillion yuan in 2012, accounting for 52 percent of the 15.8 trillion yuan aggregate financing, the least in statistics dating to 2002, when loans had a 91.9 percent share.

In his annual report to the legislature on March 5, outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao set a target for M2 growth this year of about 13 percent, compared with 14 percent last year.

The central bank hasn’t publicly issued a goal for new loans. The China Securities Journal reported March 7 that new lending this year is expected at more than 9 trillion yuan, citing Lin Tiegang, the head of the PBOC’s Tianjin branch. UBS AG estimates new local-currency lending this year will rise to 8.5 trillion yuan to 9 trillion yuan, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates 9.1 trillion yuan.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Penny Peng in Beijing at ppeng18@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nerys Avery at navery2@bloomberg.net


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