A rally in oil-tanker rates will be delayed and smaller than previously anticipated as consuming nations draw upon existing stockpiles and curb imports, said Jonathan Chappell, an analyst at Evercore Partners Inc. (EVR:US)
“We have been forecasting all year that the third quarter would mark the trough of the tanker market in 2012,” Chappell, who’s based in New York, said in an e-mailed report yesterday. “We believe it is now more likely for the summer trough to be even deeper and for a 4Q12 rebound to end up being more modest than our prior views.”
Shipping costs on the largest tankers rose in the first half of the year as oil-consuming countries imported more to build stockpiles because of tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, Chappell said. The European Union announced an embargo in January on purchasing, financing, insuring and transporting Iran’s crude. The ban takes full effect next month. The Persian Gulf country threatened to retaliate by disrupting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for about 20 percent of the world’s traded oil.
Earnings for very large crude carriers hauling 2 million- barrel cargoes averaged $26,000 a day in the first half compared with $19,500 a year earlier, Chappell said.
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