Bloomberg News

U.S. Fourth Quarter Third Gross Domestic Product (Text)

March 29, 2012

Following is the text of the Gross Domestic Product from the Commerce Department.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.0 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in federal government spending, an acceleration in imports, and a deceleration in exports.

Motor vehicle output added 0.47 percentage point to the fourth- quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.12 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Final sales of computers added 0.12 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.22 percentage point to the third-quarter change.

This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. For information on revisions, see “Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components.”

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the same increase as in the second estimate; this index increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 16.1 percent, compared with an increase of 5.7 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.5 percent. Services increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 5.2 percent, compared with an increase of 15.7 percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 0.9 percent, in contrast to an increase of 14.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 7.5 percent, compared with an increase of 16.2 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 11.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.1 percent in the third. National defense decreased 12.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.0 percent. Nondefense increased 4.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 3.8 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 2.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.6 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 1.81 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 1.35 percentage points from the third-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $52.2 billion in the fourth quarter, following a decrease of $2.0 billion in the third quarter and an increase of $39.1 billion in the second.

Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the third.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third.

Gross national product

Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world, which decreased $36.7 billion in the fourth quarter after increasing $3.9 billion in the third; in the fourth quarter, receipts decreased $21.8 billion, and payments increased $15.0 billion.

Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation’s output of goods and services -- increased 3.8 percent, or $143.3 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $15,319.4 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.4 percent, or $163.3 billion.

Gross domestic income

Real gross domestic income (GDI), which measures the output of the economy as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of GDP, increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 2.6 percent in the third. For a given quarter, the estimates of GDP and GDI may differ for a variety of reasons, including the incorporation of largely independent source data. However, over longer time spans, the estimates of GDP and GDI tend to follow similar patterns of change.

Revisions

The “third” estimate of the fourth-quarter percent change in real GDP is the same as the “second” estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting a downward revision to exports that was offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment.

Advance Est Second Est Third Est

(Percent change from preceding quarter)

Real GDP......... 2.8 3.0 3.0 Current-dollar GDP 3.2 3.9 3.8 Gross domestic purchases

price index 0.8 1.1 1.1

2011 GDP

Real GDP increased 1.7 percent in 2011 (that is, from the 2010 annual level to the 2011 annual level), compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010.

The increase in real GDP in 2011 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in 2011 primarily reflected downturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending and a deceleration in exports that were partly offset by a deceleration in imports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.

Real GDI increased 2.1 percent in 2011, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in 2010.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent in 2011, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2010.

Current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $567.5 billion, in 2011 to a level of $15,094.0 billion. In 2010, current-dollar GDP increased 4.2 percent, or $587.5 billion.

During 2011 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2011), real GDP increased 1.6 percent. Real GDP increased 3.1 percent during 2010. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent during 2011, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during 2010.

Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $16.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $32.5 billion in the third quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $44.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $35.8 billion in the third.

Taxes on corporate income decreased $0.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with a decrease of $9.1 billion in the third. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $17.5 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $41.6 billion in the third. Dividends increased $10.3 billion, compared with an increase of $14.0 billion; current-production undistributed profits increased $7.2 billion, compared with an increase of $27.7 billion.

Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $29.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $9.2 billion in the third. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $28.4 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $17.9 billion in the third. In the fourth quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real value added increased. The increase in unit profits reflected decreases in both unit labor and nonlabor costs that more than offset a decrease in unit prices.

The rest-of-the-world component of profits decreased $41.5 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of $5.4 billion in the third. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The fourth-quarter decrease was accounted for by a decrease in receipts and an increase in payments.

Profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment is the best available measure of industry profits because estimates of the capital consumption adjustment by industry do not exist. This measure reflects depreciation-accounting practices used for federal income tax returns. According to this measure, domestic profits of both financial and nonfinancial corporations increased. The increase in nonfinancial corporations reflected increases in all the major subaggregates shown, except for “other” nonfinancial. The largest increases were in retail trade and in manufacturing. Within manufacturing, a large decrease in petroleum and coal products was more than offset by increases in the remaining industries shown.

Profits before tax decreased $8.3 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of $22.3 billion in the third. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment decreased $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter (from $102.7 billion to $100.9 billion), compared with a decrease of $4.6 billion in the third. The inventory valuation adjustment increased $26.9 billion (from -$45.5 billion to -$18.6 billion), compared with an increase of $14.9 billion.

Corporate Profits in 2011

Profits from current production increased 7.9 percent in 2011, compared with an increase of 32.2 percent in 2010. Domestic profits increased 6.7 percent, compared with an increase of 41.6 percent. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased 12.4 percent, compared with an increase of 6.0 percent.

Taxes on corporate income increased 1.3 percent in 2011, compared with an increase of 50.9 percent in 2010. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased 9.9 percent, compared with an increase of 27.5 percent. Dividends increased 10.3 percent, compared with an increase of 18.9 percent; current-production undistributed profits increased 9.4 percent, compared with an increase of 38.8 percent.

According to the measure of profits before tax with inventory valuation adjustment, domestic profits of financial corporations decreased in 2011, and domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased. The increase in nonfinancial corporations reflected increases in manufacturing, information, and “other” nonfinancial industries that were partly offset by decreases in utilities, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade. Within manufacturing, the largest increase was in petroleum and coal products.

Next release -- April 27, 2012, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2012 (Advance Estimate)

SOURCE: U.S. Commerce Department, http://www.bea.gov.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Marco Babic at mbabic@bloomberg.net


Race, Class, and the Future of Ferguson
LIMITED-TIME OFFER SUBSCRIBE NOW

(enter your email)
(enter up to 5 email addresses, separated by commas)

Max 250 characters

 
blog comments powered by Disqus