Bloomberg News

Global Trade to Expand 7% This Year, HSBC Report Says

February 22, 2012

(Updates with comment from HSBC official in third paragraph)

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Global trade will grow 7 percent this year and at an annualized rate of 3.8 percent over the next five years thanks to an earlier economic recovery, HSBC Holdings Plc said today in a report.

The trade forecast suggests grounds for optimism for international businesses, even as economic challenges continue and the world economy is expected to slow this year, the bank said in its HSBC Global Connections report.

“All of the signs demonstrate that despite the crises, in general everyone is highly optimistic that international trade will still grow very quickly,” Luiz Simione, HSBC global head of trade solutions, said by phone from London.

Sectors such as steel will support the expansion of trade with a 7.4 percent annualized growth rate forecast in the trading of rolled iron and steel bars over the next five years, the report said.

“Despite the current climate, the overall trend for international trade is positive with growth acceleration sooner than expected from 2014, rather than 2015,” HSBC said in the report. “After 2014 the global economy ends a period of slow growth and contraction and sees an upturn in trade in line with GDP forecasts.”

Machines, Vaccines, Blood

Trade in North America will expand 72 percent by 2026, with the fastest growing sectors in the next five years being printing machinery, vaccines and blood products, HSBC said.

In Mexico, trade will expand more than 100 percent over the same period, with manufacturing and electronic sectors growing at the fastest pace over the next five years, according to the report.

World trade will expand 86 percent in the next 15 years, taking total trade activity in 2026 to $53.8 trillion, the report showed.

Over the same period, companies will increase trade activity by 4.7 percent at an annualized rate, Simione said.

--Editors: Jose Enrique Arrioja, Jonathan Roeder

To contact the reporter on this story: Nacha Cattan in Mexico City at ncattan@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Joshua Goodman at jgoodman19@bloomberg.net


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