Bloomberg News

Emerging Europe Growth Through 2013 ‘Unimpressive,’ UBS Says

October 31, 2011

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging European growth in the next two years will be “unimpressive,” given a “sluggish” recovery in developed economies and a recession in the euro region, UBS AG said.

Growth in the emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa region will slow to 2.7 percent next year, from an estimated 4.4 percent this year, before picking up to 3.5 percent in 2013, London-based UBS economists including Reinhard Cluse, Gyorgy Kovacs and Marie Antelme wrote in an e-mailed note today.

UBS cut its 2012 Polish growth forecast to 2.9 percent from 3.3 percent, while also reducing its estimate for Hungary to 0.5 percent from 1.5 percent and for the Czech Republic to 1 percent from 1.6 percent.

Growth prospects are “not so bad” for Russia, Poland, South Africa and Israel, which tend to benefit from healthier domestic demand, the economists wrote. Hungary and the Czech Republic will be worst hit because of their export reliance, according to UBS. While Turkey may grow 2 percent next year, there’s a “significant risk of a more substantial slowdown in Turkey, and perhaps recession.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Agnes Lovasz in London at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew Langley at

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