Brazil Coffee Output May Miss Government Forecast (Update1)
February 08, 2010, 12:14 PM EST(Adds comments in third and fourth paragraph.)
By Katia Cortes
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Coffee output in Brazil, the world’s largest grower, may fall short of the Agriculture Ministry’s forecast this year as rains damage the crop, a government meteorologist said.
Coffee growers may harvest about 44 million bags this year, less than the Brazilian ministry’s Jan. 7 forecast of between 45.9 million and 48.7 million bags, said Expedito Rebello, chief of research at the Brasilia-based Meteorology Institute, the government agency known as Inmet.
“It will rain a lot over the next 15 days,” Rebello, who is in charge of analyzing the impact of weather on crops, said today in an interview from Brasilia. “The flowering of the beans is being harmed as it’s already very humid and the rain continues.”
Rainfall expected through at least Feb. 24 in Sao Paulo state, in the south of Minas Gerais state and in the north of Parana state may also raise the risk of fungi attacks, he said.
Coffee futures for March delivery rose 1.8 percent to $1.3105 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. at 11:56 a.m. in New York, the first increase in four days.
Rains will likely aid corn and soybean crops and boost yields, Rebello said.
The Agriculture Ministry may raise its soybean output forecast tomorrow to about 65.5 million metric tons, up from a Jan. 7 estimate of 65.2 million tons, he said. The ministry may boost its corn production estimate to 50.8 million tons, up from a previous estimate of 50.5 million tons, he said.
The ministry’s crop-forecasting agency, known as Conab, is scheduled to release its corn and soybean forecasts tomorrow morning.
--Editors: Jessica Brice, Dale Crofts.
To contact the reporter on this story: Katia Cortes in Brasilia at at kcortes@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dale Crofts at dcrofts@bloomberg.net
