Mark Mobius on the Outlook for Emerging Markets

Mobius tells Maria Bartiromo why Brazil is the most exciting developing market and which other global spots are enticing plays

by Maria Bartiromo

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Brazil's Lula, says Mobius, has put his country in a "sweet spot" Eraldo Peres/AP Photo

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With stratospheric growth in China and India, stocks in those emerging markets have been sizzling since early in the decade. The breakneck pace has slowed considerably this year, however, and Bloomberg reported on July 22 that China and India "are the worst performers among the world's 20 largest stock markets." But as in all market slowdowns, where some see disaster, others spy opportunity. Templeton Asset Management's emerging-market guru, Mark Mobius, is most certainly an opportunity guy. Mobius is less than keen on India but remains bullish on China—even though Templeton Developing Markets (TEDMX) fund, which posted a 28% return in 2007, is delivering a -16% return so far this year. But Mobius has 40 years’ experience and $40 billion under management, and his observations on international conditions are not to be taken lightly.

MARIA BARTIROMO

Tell me how you're handling this market.

MARK MOBIUS

For a long-term investor, valuations are getting very interesting, particularly in places like Turkey and South Africa. Even in China, some stocks are getting into enticing ranges. The only worry I have is that investors will get cold feet and begin to pull out. If that happens, then it will be difficult for us to take advantage of these opportunities.

Year to date, Templeton Developing Markets fund is down 16%, trailing some 94% of emerging-market funds. Part of the reason seems to be that big bets on China and Turkey have hurt the fund. But your plan is to hang tough in those markets?

Investor confidence in Turkey has suffered recently due to political uncertainty, despite higher-than-expected GDP growth. Nevertheless, we know that there is still a lot of long-term value in Turkey. Most important is the excellent managerial talent there. As for China, it remains the world's fastest-growing major economy. It is gradually being transformed from an export-oriented economy to a domestic-oriented economy. Going forward, the domestic Chinese consumer will be the driving force behind the economy just like the consumer is the U.S.