For the U.S. and its allies in the fight against terrorism, few goals could be more important than making sure the Middle East is firmly on the way to stability--and away from extremism. After all, it was militants from the Middle East who planned and executed the September 11 attacks on the U.S.
But don't count on it happening soon. For starters, the highly conservative governments in the Arab world look more likely to dig in than to change. On top of that, the Bush Administration has failed to come up with a coherent policy for the region. Washington's laissez-faire stance to Palestinian-Israeli fighting is turning Arabs against the U.S. And the Administration's "with us or against us" stance on the anti-terror campaign is putting American allies such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia on the defensive. These are all reasons why the Middle East is likely to remain fertile ground for militant groups. And the new generation of extremists could well make Osama bin Laden look tame.
To be sure, last fall's events have sparked some self-criticism in the Arab world. On Dec. 30, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah delivered a harsh lecture to a regional summit meeting in Muscat, Oman. He called for an end to the time-honored practice of blaming the region's shortcomings on outsiders. Others are also pondering the roots of the September 11 attacks. "It is up to the Islamic world to return to its senses and assess the damage [Osama bin Laden] has caused," wrote Khalil Ali Haider, a specialist on Islamic groups, in the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Watan.
Slowly, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are stepping up the pressure on militant Islamists. The governments are curbing Islamic charities that have funded violent groups. And they are reviewing school curriculums, which have become overly religious in content. But such moves don't go far enough. The roots of Islamic extremism lie not so much in religion but in repressive societies with economies too anemic to provide livelihoods for their fast-growing populations. Despite much talk of reform, most Arab countries remain museums of state capitalism. There's no sign of a leader who could shake things to the core. "Those who expect a new, reformed Islam are asking the wrong questions. We don't have a Luther. We don't have a Calvin," says Tahseen Bashir, a former Egyptian presidential spokesman and diplomat. Instead, they have suicide bombers, who appeal to Middle Easterners for having the guts to stand up to big powers.
And what is the U.S. doing? To date, Washington hasn't unveiled a broad-based strategy for the region. Instead, the single-minded focus on terrorism has contributed to the Administration's abandoning long-standing U.S. efforts to broker peace between Palestinians and Israelis. "There is no longer a peace process. In this new situation hope is being replaced by despair," says Mohamed Sid Ahmed, a columnist at the Cairo daily Al-Ahram.
Desperation encourages young Arabs to become suicide bombers. It's their only way to strike at overwhelmingly powerful adversaries. "If the U.S. continues the same policies toward the Arabs, it will give the Islamic movements a new life; they will be stronger than today," warns Dia Rashwan, a specialist on these groups at the Al-Ahram Center for Strategic Studies, a Cairo think tank. Repression may work for a while. But unless people are given reason to hope, the Middle East could be the cradle of more dangerous groups.
By Stanley Reed in London
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