Investing June 1, 2009, 7:47PM EST

Travelers' New Challenge: Luring Consumers

The insurance giant is trying to bulk up its direct-to-consumer business to compete with the likes of Geico and Progressive

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Geico has its dapper gecko and brooding caveman. Progressive Corp. (PGR) has Flo, the chirpy sales clerk. And Travelers Cos. (TRV) has a … red umbrella?

Clearly, Travelers, a major player in commercial insurance and the newest member of the Dow Jones industrial average (its induction to the blue-chip benchmark was announced June 1 along with that of Cisco Systems (CSCO)) faces a marketing challenge as it tries to gear up its direct-channel insurance business to compete with Geico (a unit of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)) and Progressive.

It's likely that the property and casualty insurance company will have to endure an extended trial-and-error period—and spend lots of marketing dollars—before it strikes advertising gold, much like Progressive did before settling on Flo last fall, says Vinay Misquith, an analyst who covers the insurance industry at Credit Suisse (CS). (Without an army of agents to market policies, an engaging advertising hook is essential in the direct-channel insurance business.)

That will be a drag on Travelers' earnings for at least the next two years, Misquith estimates, and that could temper some of the enthusiasm around the company's stock, which on June 8 will join the exclusive company of Dow Jones components. In an ironic twist, Travelers will replace its former parent, Citigroup (C), from which it was spun off via IPO in 2002.

"It will be at least two years before [direct-channel insurance] starts contributing meaningfully to [Travelers'] bottom line," says Misquith. "It's hard to know how much of a drag it will be" over those two years or to what extent that's already being reflected in the stock price.

A Safe-Haven Stock?

And as one of the more financially robust insurance companies, with none of the exposure to investment leverage that's forced so many life insurance and financial-services companies to write down asset values over the past 18 months, Travelers in some ways might be viewed as "a bad investment on the thesis that people are looking for companies that will rebound" from the financial-system turmoil, says J. Paul Newsome, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners in Chicago.

Indeed, Travelers shares are down almost 20% from the beginning of 2008, vs. an 82% plunge in Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), not to mention the destruction of 97% of AIG's (AIG) market capitalization during the same period. Travelers shares closed nearly 3.1% higher, at 41.91, on June 1.

"It's relatively cheap. If you're looking for a company that has the ability to rebound sharply because of the financial markets, this is not it," says Newsome. "If you're looking for a company that's a safe haven, this is it. A lot depends on how paranoid you are [about] the financial markets and the stock market in general."

While the company isn't straying from its stable business strategy, it will incur much higher expenses as it tries to build its direct-channel marketing of personal auto and homeowners' insurance. Insurance providers can save a lot in overhead costs and agent commissions by selling directly to consumers via phone, mail, or Internet, but they need "serious economies of scale" to be profitable at it, says Newsome, He hopes to learn more about how Travelers plans to do this at the company's Investor Day on June 4.