The Economy: Five Signposts to Recovery

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3. Jobs

Economists differ on the importance of measures of the job market, such as the unemployment rate, which hit 5% in December. On the one hand, it's a key measure of economic pain, showing whether businesses are confident enough to hire and determining how much consumers have to spend. But it is a lagging indicator. The economy can look like it's still adding jobs three to six months into a recession, Karl says.

However, "employment still holds the key," says Peter Cardillo, an economist at Avalon Partners. If the unemployment rate keeps rising, it will cause many more months of sluggish consumer spending, he says. If job numbers don't get much worse, or stabilize, it could be a sign that the slowdown will be quick and relatively painless.

4. Housing

It's clear that the troubled housing sector pushed hard on the economy's brakes in 2007. The housing market's troubles hurt economic growth and employment figures, while also punishing the financial institutions that issued mortgages in the past few years.

So will 2007's villain become 2008's savior? Not likely, economists say. Many still think housing prices could drop another 10% or more.

Things look so bad that "people will need to be convinced that it's a good idea to get back into housing," says Michele Gambera, chief economist at Ibbotson Associates, part of Morningstar (MORN). That could be a tough sales job, with home prices still at unaffordable levels, a "big inventory" of unsold homes sitting on the market, and the prospect that foreclosures could add thousands more to the market this year, Gambera says.

Still, some economists are looking for good news in this dark and dreary corner of the economy. We don't need a rebound in the housing sector, Silvia says, but he is looking for some sign of stability, perhaps an indication that home buyers' attitudes are starting to shift. That could be a sign that a major weight is lifting off the economy's back.

5. Global growth

For the U.S. economy, the one bright spot is exports. Many U.S. corporations report strong growth overseas, where many economies are booming and the weak U.S. dollar makes American products more competitive.

It's crucial to a U.S. recovery that this trend stay in place. "The global economy is slowing," Cardillo says, "but not falling off the cliff or heading for recession." Liro suspects the Western European economy may slow down, but demand from Latin America and Asia should keep growing, giving the U.S. a much-needed boost.

Changes in government policy, oil prices, the job market, housing, or the global economy each could help save the U.S. from recession. But each factor could also get worse.

The economy may avoid recession, but economists still warn that even positive growth can be painful if it's slow. It may not be an official recession, but unemployment can rise and the economy can limp along for quarter after quarter. Whatever happens, "it's just not going to feel very good," Liro says.

Meanwhile, investors will wait patiently for the first crocuses of spring to poke their heads through the dreary winter snow.

Steverman is a reporter for BusinessWeek's Investing channel.