Posted by: Aaron Pressman on May 15, 2008
Kicked off quite a heated debate back in November when I called out Amazon’s (Symbol: AMZN) ebook reader, the Kindle, as an important future revenue source. Now I’m getting some company. Citigroup Analyst Mark Mahaney has a report out saying Amazon should collect $400 million to $750 million in revenue from the Kindle by 2010 (tip o’ the cap to Mike Arrington). Mahaney says the Kindle’s wireless, on-demand ebook store is the big differentiator from competing products.
Mahaney also uses the iPod adoption model for future Kindle sales, though with numerous conservative reductions built in to his model. He starts by assuming that only 10,000 to 30,000 Kindles sold in the first three months from Amazon versus 129,000 iPods that Apple sold in its first quarter after introduction. Then he figures Kindles track the same sales curve at another 50% to 75% cut down. By 2010, half the revenue would be from Kindles and half from ebooks, he says.
And for what little it’s worth so far, Amazon shares were trading at $78.60 the day before the Kindle announcement versus $75.98 today.