No Honeymoon for Japan's New Leader

Yasuo Fukuda is a shoo-in for prime minister, but his Liberal Democratic Party is unpopular after predecessor Shinzo Abe's disastrous year

by Ian Rowley

Just 12 days after Shinzo Abe announced he would step down as Japanese prime minister (BusinessWeek.com, 9/12/07), Yasuo Fukuda will be named Japan's new leader on Sept. 25 after winning the presidency of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Sept. 23. The LDP's majority in Japan's Lower House means it's a shoo-in that Fukuda, as the party's candidate for prime minister, will receive parliamentary approval.

Yet while Fukuda won his party's endorsement with relative ease, beating his only challenger, Chief Cabinet Secretary Taro Aso, by 330 votes to 197, a long stay as prime minister looks an unlikely proposition. At 71, Fukuda doesn't have time on his side. More important, after a disastrous year for the LDP during Abe's term as leader, his party's approval rating remains in the doldrums.

Here's a rundown of the new prime minister's challenges.

Overcoming Abe's Legacy

Without a doubt, Fukuda takes over Japan's top job with his party at a low ebb. After getting hammered in a July 29 Upper House election (BusinessWeek.com, 7/30/07), Fukuda will be Japan's first prime minister in nine years without the support of both houses. Without the backing of opposition parties, it will be tough for him to easily pass policy.

In particular, the renewal of a Japan's anti-terrorism law, which permits a controversial refueling mission for U.S-led antiterrorism operations in and around Afghanistan, will immediately test Fukuda's political wits. The extension of the law is something Abe staked his reputation on and, after failing to get support from opposition parties, gave as one reason for his resignation. Now Fukuda has indicated his intent to extend the current law before it expires on Nov. 1, despite opposition so far by rival parties led by the Democratic Party of Japan.

No Charisma

While many Japanese will be relieved at Abe's resignation, the LDP remains unpopular. A poll by the Yomiuri Shimbun on Sept. 17 found just 31.9% of voters supporting the LDP, only marginally higher than before Abe's resignation, and a sign that neither Fukuda nor rival leadership challenger Aso, 67, were making a favorable impression on the public.

Fukuda's ascent to prime minister is unlikely to change those opinions. For one, his rise is a victory for the factional politics that dominate the LDP but irritate voters. After most of the power blocs in the LDP said they were backing Fukuda, his appointment was never in doubt despite moderate performances in public. "Fukuda is not a popular person but people [inside the LDP] would rather choose him than Aso," says Jiro Yamaguchi, a politics professor at Hokkaido University. Notably, in return for their support during his run-off with Aso, Fukuda today appointed current and former faction leaders Bummei Ibuki, Sadakazu Tanigaki, and Toshihiro Nikai to key positions in his new team.

Fukuda's lack of charisma may also play against him. Abe suffered in comparison with the flamboyant former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, and Fukuda (a classic LDP dealmaker) faces a similar problem. His strength is the stability he brings to his party, not his public persona. Son of Takeo Fukuda, Japan's prime minister from 1976 to 1978, Fukuda is noted for his skills at coordinating policy and his dovish stance on international issues, particularly relations with East Asian neighbors. But whereas Koizumi could work a crowd with ease, Fukuda, who worked for a Japanese oil company before entering the Lower House in 1990, looks more salaryman than showman.

Sliding LDP Popularity

Faced with sliding LDP popularity in its countryside strongholds, a key factor in the Upper House election defeat, Fukuda is under pressure to backslide on reforms initiated under Koizumi and continued under Abe.