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|  | NOVEMBER 24, 2004
By Stan Crock The Palestinians: Still in the Wilderness After Arafat, a peace deal with Israel remains distant, thanks to obstacles like the lack of "heroic statesmen" to bring breakthroughs It was a small step -- about all that could be expected. Outgoing Secretary of State Colin Powell won a promise from the Israeli government on Nov. 22 that it would not stand in the way of a Palestinian election in January. If the Israelis don't throw up roadblocks for voters, it will enable the U.S., Palestinians, and Israelis to benefit from the passing of Yasser Arafat, who so often seemed an obstacle to peace. But it's easy to oversell the prospects ahead. True, Israeli-Palestinian cooperation on the election and the possibility that Israel will seek Palestinian help for the Jewish state's withdrawal from Gaza would be a remarkable U-turn from the violent intifada. But don't assume that a peace deal involving a two-state solution to the conflict is in the offing any time soon. NO MORE HEROS? That point was made with crystal clarity during a recent presentation by Aaron Miller. He's the former top deputy to Middle East peace negotiator Dennis Ross and is now president of Seeds of Peace, a group that brings together children from both sides of strife-torn regions. Miller told a luncheon gathering at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy earlier this month that the challenges to a peace deal are "galactic." Why do the obstacles loom so large? For starters, the last four years have seen only confrontation and violence. No one has vigorously pursued a framework for peace to bring the two warring sides together. Miller also worries that the age of "heroic statesmen" in the region is past -- that there are no more Sadats, Rabins, Begins. When it comes to breakthroughs, "it takes big leaders to make those decisions," Miller says. Sharon might have such stature, Miller adds, but has not shown a willingness to achieve it yet. And there's no obvious trailblazer with broad political support on the Palestinian side. MONUMENTAL SHIFT. What's more, the dynamic that enabled Egypt and Jordan to ink peace accords with the Jewish state doesn't apply to the Israeli-Palestinian problem, Miller asserts. Israel was dealing with Egypt and Jordan on the basis of essential parity. But with the Palestinians, an "asymmetry of power" exists. Israel has the power of the strong, while the Palestinians have the power of the weak. That means the Palestinians, as victims, think they have license to do anything they want because their predicament is not their fault. Making matters worse, there's no third party to redress the imbalance of power. Normally the U.S. plays that role, but the Bush Administration has put precious little effort into the peace process. Despite these hurdles, inching ahead may be possible. The Knesset has approved Sharon's proposal for Israel's planned withdrawal from Gaza, which is not only important on its own but is also an acknowledgment that the settlements can't be sustained. The actual dismantling of settlements by Sharon, their architect, and the return of land to the Palestinians would represent a monumental shift. SAYING THE RIGHT THINGS. It will be of even greater significance if it's done cooperatively rather than unilaterally. Arafat's successors, the old guard who came with him from Tunis, may be able to deliver fairly quickly the kind of obvious success Arafat never managed to achieve. That would make them a credible alternative to Hamas and the younger, more violence-prone generation. Another important change involves the fence along the West Bank. The Israeli courts keep moving the fence's line toward the 1967 border. That, Miller says, "preserves the possibility of a two-state solution." It has long been assumed that Israel would incorporate a bit of the West Bank while giving the Palestinians some land inside Israel's pre-1967 border in return. If the fence and withdrawal reduce terrorist attacks, Sharon's government will be in a much better position domestically to negotiate an accord. The key to all this, according to Miller, is whether President George W. Bush can find a middle ground between the utter disengagement that characterized his first term and what may have been overengagement on the part of President Bill Clinton. Bush and his Administration now are saying all the right things. BAROMETERS. In a Nov. 12 in a press conference with Tony Blair, Bush declared, "We look forward to working with a Palestinian leadership that's committed to fighting terror and committed to the cause of democratic reform. We'll mobilize the international community to help revive the Palestinian economy, to build up Palestinian security institutions to fight terror, to help the Palestinian government fight corruption, and to reform the Palestinian political system and build democratic institutions." The words are all well and good, but the question is whether the Administration will act on them. Miller suggests some signposts to watch that could help predict whether there's potential for an eventual peace pact. Security: Will the U.S. encourage Egypt to provide security assistance and train Palestinian security personnel? Will the Israelis be patient and give the Palestinian security plan a chance to work? The Palestinian elections: Will they happen? Will significant portions of the electorate boycott? Will moderates or radicals win? Economics: Will Israel try to keep the Palestinian Authority viable by easing border closures and encouraging an increase in foreign aid? Will the Authority be able to compete with Hamas and war lords in delivering services people need? Dialogue: Will the Israelis and Palestinians start talking? Will Israel restrict new settlements? PALESTINE'S MOSES? The bottom line for Miller is that there's a big difference between a permanent deal -- one that addresses such thorny issues as the status of Jerusalem and refugees -- and what's doable now, which is simply preserving the possibility of such an accord in the future. It's impossible to overcome lingering hostility and distrust quickly, which means a final treaty would be some time off. But it's critical to exploit the opportunity Arafat's passing provides. It's possible that any Palestinian leader who signs a treaty with Israel will be like Moses -- someone who leads his people to the Promised Land but can't enter it. It will take someone with extraordinary courage, like a Sadat or Rabin -- to realize that and proceed despite the ultimate personal cost. What no one knows is whether such a leader is in our midst now. Miller doubts it. Let's hope he's wrong.  Crock is senior diplomatic correspondent for BusinessWeek Edited by Patricia O'Connell Get BusinessWeek directly on your desktop with our RSS feeds.  Add BusinessWeek news to your Web site with our headline feed. Click to buy an e-print or reprint of a BusinessWeek or BusinessWeek Online story or video. To subscribe online to BusinessWeek magazine, please click here. Learn more, go to the BusinessWeekOnline home page  | | |
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