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Normally, as the November election approaches, the number of competitive Senate races shrinks as candidates begin to pull away. However, the opposite seems to be happening this year in what is shaping up as a volatile battle for control of the U.S. Senate. With Democrats clinging to a razor-thin 50-to-49 edge, a single race could tip the balance of power on Capitol Hill.
At the beginning of 2002, the experts declared that only 8 to 10 of the 34 Senate races would be truly competitive. That number has nearly doubled in recent months as stronger-than-expected challengers to the incumbent party have emerged in states from Texas to Oregon. What's more, embattled incumbents look more vulnerable than ever in states such as Arkansas and New Jersey.
With so many seats in play, the Senate could end up being very closely split -- if the two parties divide the most hotly contested races -- or one party could hold a commanding edge if a national trend emerges in the final two months of the campaign. If it does, that probably would benefit the Democrats, who stand to gain if voters are anxious about the state of the economy or the influence of corporate interests in Washington. What's more, parties that control the White House rarely score gains in midterm elections, no matter the popularity of the President.
Republicans have a couple of decisive advantages: money and battlefields. Thirteen of the 18 competitive Senate races are in states carried by George W. Bush in 2000. Here are updates on 10 Senate races being closely watched by both parties:
South Dakota. It remains the top race in the nation. President Bush personally recruited Republican Representative John Thune to challenge Democrat Timothy P. Johnson. After several rounds of negative TV commercials, polls give the popular Johnson a narrow lead. But Thune, who won South Dakota's at-large House seat with 73% of the vote, is a maverick conservative with a strong base of support. Every Democratic Presidential aspirant is helping Johnson raise money and turn out the vote. This is a classic small-state clash between two proven vote-getters. It could get ugly. It is likely to be decided by fewer than 10,000 votes, so the old cliché holds true: every vote counts.
Minnesota. How seriously do Democrats take the threat to incumbent Senator Paul Wellstone? One state Democratic elected official describes Republican challenger Norm Coleman, the former mayor of St. Paul, as a "very, very formidable" opponent. Wellstone is vulnerable for several reasons: he's perhaps the most liberal member of the Senate and Coleman, a former Democrat, is a well-respected moderate. Also, the incumbent is seeking a third term after promising to retire after two. President Bush already has raised $2 million for Coleman. But it'd be premature to count Wellstone out: He's a tireless campaigner and a savvy populist.
New Hampshire. This race won't come into focus until after the state's September primary, but it's fair to say that Republican Senator Bob Smith is the nation's most endangered incumbent. He's been trailing his GOP primary foe, Representative John Sununu, since the day the son and namesake of the former White House Chief of Staff announced his candidacy. Smith, who left the party during an ill-fated (and short-lived) campaign for President in 2000, is running to Sununu's right on social issues and to his left on the environment. Awaiting the winner is Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu is the early favorite in this three-way free-for-all, but New Hampshire is known for stunning last-minute surprises. Just ask George W. Bush, who lost the 2000 Presidential primary he had been expected to win.
Missouri. President Bush has staked his prestige -- and a lot of Republican cash -- on convincing Show-Me State voters to show the door to freshman Democrat Jean Carnahan. Carnahan became senator after her late husband Mel defeated then-incumbent John Ashcroft in 2000, a month after Carnahan died in a plane crash. White House political guru Karl Rove is convinced that Jean Carnahan, who has never sought elective office, is a political fluke. And she angered some back home by voting against Ashcroft's nomination to be Attorney General. But Carnahan has a strong political organization, and she has been a pragmatic moderate in the Senate. The Republican is former Representative Jim Talent, who fell just short in the 2000 governor's race. In a closely divided state, this could be a close call.
Iowa. Republicans are convinced that populist Democrat Tom Harkin is too liberal for the Hawkeye State. And they think they have a winner in maverick moderate Greg Ganske, a surgeon, farmer, and congressman. The GOP says Harkin talks like a mainstream pol back home but votes left in DC. Ganske has angered his party's right wing by splitting with the President on issues ranging from patients' rights to campaign reform. Harkin is favored, but this election could come down to turnout.
Arkansas. Republicans who blasted Bill Clinton's family values are eating crow right now as GOP Senator Tim Hutchinson deflects questions about his divorce and remarriage. His Democratic challenger is a famous Arkansas name -- Pryor. Attorney General Mark Pryor is the son of a former senator and governor. Republicans say he inherited the name but not the political smarts. But Pryor seems to be smart enough to be giving Hutchinson a run for his considerable money.
New Jersey. Being senator means never having to say you're sorry. At least that's what the Republicans are saying about Democratic freshman Robert Torricelli, who was rebuked by the Senate ethics committee for his dealings with a former campaign fund-raiser who sought favors from his friend in high places. The feisty lawmaker known as the Torch was contrite in a short speech on the Senate floor, but he steadfastly insists that he did nothing wrong. Will the voters buy that? It's hard to tell.
Polls show that Torricelli's relatively unknown GOP foe, Doug Forrester, is within striking distance. Forrester is trying to position himself as a Northeastern Republican: moderate on social issues, conservative on economic issues. Democrats say he's a conservative wolf hiding in moderate sheep's clothing. And Torricelli, who has a big money edge, will spend it to convince voters that Forrester was a sleazy exec who profited from the skyrocketing prices of prescription drugs. You can clean the mud off your feet when you leave the Garden State.
Texas. Former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk is hoping to become the Democrats' first African American male ever elected to the Senate. It ought to be an uphill battle: He's running against George Bush's hand-picked candidate in the President's home state. But Kirk, a fiscal moderate, has a solid base of support in normally Republican Dallas. And he's proven to be a far more charismatic campaigner than lackluster Republican John Cornyn, who made his name as Attorney General. Polls show the race up for grabs -- at least for the moment. Republicans are convinced that Cornyn will benefit from a late surge. Democrats are hoping for a larger-than-usual turnout from minority voters.
Oregon. When the Democrats failed to recruit Governor John Kitzhaber to take on Republican Gordon Smith, it looked as if the first-term senator was home free. But Secretary of State Bill Bradbury is waging a spirited contest trying to tie Smith, a former frozen-foods company exec, to the corporate crime wave sweeping the nation. Smith has worked hard to build a reputation as a moderate conservative and an independent spirit. But he could become a surprise victim of any throw-the-bums-out trend.
Tennessee. A decade ago, Lamar Alexander was a rising star in American politics. The former two-term Tennessee governor was President George Bush's Secretary of Education. His name was bandied about as a future President or Vice-President. Now, after two disastrous Presidential runs, Alexander has returned home and is trying to claim the Senate seat being giving up by his friend and former aide, Fred Thompson. Thompson would have won reelection easily, but he decided to retire after suffering a case of capital burnout. Now, Democratic Congressman Bob Clement has a fighting chance to win back the seat once held by Al Gore. Alexander underperformed in the recent Republican primary. Voters will decide in November whether to bless his comeback or send the old warhorse out to pasture.
The watch list. There's always a dark-horse winner that emerges late in the game. Democrats are hoping to pull upsets in Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Maine. Republicans haven't yet given up hope in Georgia, Louisiana, and Montana.
This is the fifth in a periodic series of previews of the 2002 midterm elections. Next up: the battle for the House.
Dunham is a White House correspondent for BusinessWeek's Washington bureau. Follow his views every Monday in Washington Watch, only on BusinessWeek Online Edited by Beth Belton
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Copyright 2002, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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