|
ECONOMIST / Organization | PERCENT CHANGE IN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1988 | REAL GDP | CONSUMER PRICES | TREASURY YIELDS | JOBLESS RATE |
| I | II | III | IV | PERCENT CHANGE
IV Q 1997-IV Q 1998 | 3-MO.
IV Q 1998 | 30-YR.
IV Q 1998 | IV Q 1998 |
|
GAIL D. FOSLER The Conference Board | 4.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 5.60 | 6.50 | 4.4 |
| KATHLEEN M. CAMILLI Tucker Anthony | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 4.0 |
| M. KATHRYN EICKHOFF Eickhoff Economics | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 5.45 | 6.72 | 4.6 |
| MICKEY D. LEVY Nations Banc Montgomery Securities | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 4.90 | 5.70 | 4.8 |
| JOSEPH LIRO CIBC Oppenheimer | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 5.00 | 5.80 | 4.7 |
| JAMES F. SMITH University of North Carolina | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 4.95 | 5.50 | 4.5 |
| M. CARY LEAHEY High Frequency Economics | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 5.0 |
| PAUL W. BOLTZ T. Rowe Price Associates | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 5.25 | 6.10 | 4.8 |
| JIM COONS Huntington National Bank | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 6.00 | 6.40 | 4.9 |
| RAY C. FAIR Yale University | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 5.60 | 7.30 | 4.2 |
| STEPHEN GALLAGHER Société Générale | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 5.60 | 6.40 | 4.5 |
| NANCY KIMELMAN Technical Data | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 5.0 |
| BERNARD MARKSTEIN Markstein Advisors | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 4.70 | 5.60 | 4.8 |
| SUZANNE RIZZO Maria Fiorini Ramirez | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 5.30 | 6.50 | 5.8 |
| CONSTANTINE G. SORAS Bell Atlantic | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 5.04 | 6.12 | 4.6 |
| MORRIS COHEN Morris Cohen | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 5.20 | 6.35 | 4.4 |
| MICHAEL R. ENGLUND MMS International | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 5.40 | 5.75 | 4.4 |
| MAURY N. HARRIS PaineWebber | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 5.30 | 6.00 | 5.0 |
| THOMAS W. SYNNOTT U.S. Trust Co. of N.Y. | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 5.25 | 6.00 | 4.8 |
| JOHN R. WILLIAMS Bankers Trust | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 4.4 |
| MARK ZANDI Regional Financial Associates | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 5.70 | 6.60 | 4.8 |
| ROBERT A. BRUSCA The Nikko Securities Co. Int. | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 5.60 | 6.15 | 5.0 |
| JAMES COOPER & KATHLEEN MADIGAN Business Week | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 5.40 | 6.00 | 4.8 |
| CHARLES REEDER Charles Reeder Associates | 0.8 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 4.50 | 6.20 | 5.2 |
| ROBERT H. CHANDROSS Republic National Bank of New York | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 5.30 | 6.20 | 4.7 |
| DAVID ORR First Union | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 5.15 | 5.75 | 4.2 |
| MICHAEL R. PASLAWSKYJ The CIT Group | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 4.90 | 5.85 | 5.0 |
| ALLEN SINAI Primark Decision Economics | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 5.00 | 5.58 | 4.9 |
| BRUCE STEINBERG Merrill Lynch | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4.85 | 6.00 | 5.2 |
| RAJEEV DHAWAN UCLA Anderson Forecast | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 5.80 | 6.85 | 5.5 |
| ROBERT H. SHROUDS DuPont | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 5.0 |
| KURT E. KARL WEFA Group | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 5.60 | 6.80 | 4.7 |
| ANTHONY CHAN Banc One Investment Advisors Corp. | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 5.00 | 5.70 | 5.2 |
| ROBERT H. PARKS Robert H. Parks & Associates | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 6.0 |
| DAVID RESLER Nomura Securities International | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 5.10 | 5.90 | 5.0 |
| MAUREEN F. ALLYN Scudder, Stevens & Clark | 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 4.90 | 5.60 | 5.1 |
| JAMES BARKOCY Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 5.75 | 6.90 | 5.0 |
| WILLIAM A. BROWN J. P. Morgan | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 4.6 |
| GARY L. CIMINERO Independent Economic Advisory | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 5.03 | 6.20 | 5.0 |
| STUART G. HOFFMAN PNC Bank Corp. | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 4.90 | 6.15 | 5.2 |
| PHILIP BRAVERMAN DKB Securities (USA) | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 4.70 | 5.20 | 5.0 |
| HOWARD KEEN Conrail | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 5.05 | 6.25 | 5.0 |
| NICHOLAS S. PERNA Fleet Financial Group | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.75 | 6.05 | 4.8 |
| J. PRAKKEN/C. VARVARES Macroeconomic Advisers | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 5.00 | 6.27 | 5.0 |
| DAVID M. BLITZER Standard & Poor's | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 5.40 | 6.20 | 4.9 |
| EDWARD YARDENI Deutsche Morgan Grenfell | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 4.5 |
| SUNG WON SOHN Norwest Corp. | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 5.55 | 6.60 | 5.2 |
| DAVID A. WYSS Standard & Poor's DRI | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 4.83 | 6.02 | 5.1 |
| A. GARY SHILLING A. Gary Shilling & Co. | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 5.4 |
| RONALD R. REUSS Piper Jefferson | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 5.0 |
| CONSENSUS | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.14% | 6.05% | 4.9% |
