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A tech guru prognosticates

Posted by: Steve Hamm on December 13, 2005

I’m way late to the party when it comes to appreciating Mark Anderson. He’s the headman at Strategic News Service, an influential newsletter and consultancy. I had a chance to make up for lost time at Anderson’s annual predictions dinner at New York’s Waldorf-Astoria hotel last night. (Where, I was pleased to discover, they serve Waldorf salads) To cut to the chase, here are Anderson’s predictions for 2006:

1) The American people will reject US TV news in favor of the Net. “The Net is for news. TV is for entertainment. Fox is for propoganda.”
2) Online ad spending will rise 40% to 50%. That will destabilize the TV networks and print publishing empires.
3)Americans will discover the real impact of outsourcing work to India, and they won’t like it. These are the highest-skill jobs.
4)People will buy broadband connectivity from whomever has the cheapest prices—whether it’s the teleom or cable companies.
5)Bit delivery companies will take the dominant positions as platforms.
6)IP on everything.
7)Flat-panel screens in multiple rooms drives broadband demand in homes.
8)Toyota surges by GM and is recognized as the best managed company in the world.
9)The real estate boom will hold up for a while longer.
10)The global consumer phenomenon will really take off.

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Reader Comments


December 14, 2005 02:33 PM

1) Even though I believe that news agencies will suffer, they wont show it as a loss because advertisers will still pay big money to the commercial time.

3) IBM and others own large outsourcing (service) companies in India and other parts of the world. Is that till outsourcing to India?? On the flip side, more companies have gone out of business or suffered set backs in their production cycles because of managements inept way of documenting their needs, because what you write down is exactly what you are going to get. Remember - you get what you pay for.

8) Toyota is a great company. Their management from Japan has great vision. They have a product line that is close to great, but not close enough to the German competition to really take over teh world yet. The American management sadly doesn't follow the same vision as their Japanese counterparts. They are currently trying to figure out how to use technology to better the business but have burried themselves with so many outsourcing mistakes, it will take years to recover. So, expect sales to continue to grow, but profits to be on a much slower growth pattern. Maybe if Japan outsourced their CIO / IT Management in the US it would help.

9) If outsourcing really has the effect most educated people are thinking inside their heads, the real estate boom will take a dive within the next five to ten years because we will have all change carrer paths and trying to work out way back up in our new professions and thus can't afford the housing prices.

OK, I must go RFID my dog now.

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BusinessWeek writers Peter Burrows, Cliff Edwards, Olga Kharif, Aaron Ricadela, Douglas MacMillan, and Spencer Ante dig behind the headlines to analyze what’s really happening throughout the world of technology. One of the first mainstream media tech blogs, Tech Beat covers everything from tech bellwethers like Apple, Google, and Intel and emerging new leaders such as Facebook to new technologies, trends, and controversies.



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