Posted by: Prashant Gopal on November 04
President Obama could sign the $10.8 billion homebuyer tax credit extension and expansion plan into law as soon as next week. The Senate this evening voted 98-0 in favor of the extension. The House is expected to approve it within days.
But a new report from Goldman Sachs suggests that the six-month extension might do little for the fragile housing market and could be even less effective than the soon-to-expire credit for first-time buyers that cost taxpayers about $8.5 billion and lasted nearly a year.
The Congressional proposal would give buyers until April 30, 2010 to sign purchase contracts and another 60 days to close. And it will no longer be just for first-time buyers. Homeowners who have lived in their current home for five of the last eight years can claim $6,500, under the new law, which would only apply to houses purchased after the current tax credit expires Nov. 30. Income limits will be more generous: $125,000 a year for individuals, $225,000 a year for married couples.
But Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips says, in a report released to clients Nov. 3, that the expanded program won’t raise home prices and sales much and likely won’t significantly trim the supply of unsold homes.
“The extension of the current credit will probably result in some incremental first-time buying but not as much as the last one,” Phillips said in a phone interview today. “The expansion to the other population of buyers [existing homeowners] will provide a small boost to prices, but no more than 1%.”
According to Phillips’ calculations, all but about 200,000 of the 1.4 million first-time buyers who claimed the credit this year would have purchased a home even without the incentive. And the credit resulted in boosting home prices only by about 1%(Phillips assumed in his calculation that home prices rose in part because sellers built a large portion of the credit into their asking prices).
The pool of first-time buyers who still need an incentive to get off the fence is likely small because many of them have already taken advantage of the now-expiring credit. Existing homeowners who qualify for the new $6,500 credit could spur additional sales. But the supply of unsold homes will remain unchanged because most homeowners will have to sell their existing home in order to buy a new one (The credit only applies to principal residences).
This doesn’t mean that the credit is useless, only that it is inefficient. For one thing, it could stimulate the economy by giving consumers more money to spend. (Economist Simon Johnson argued in the Washington Post last week that the tax credit is both inefficent as a homebuyer incentive and as a economic stimulus).
“We were not arguing that [the expanded credit] would have no effect,” Phillips said. “Just will the effect be as great as last one?”
As if the source is credible at this point. Goldman Sachs is most assuredly working on cooking up a way to channel that 10.8 billion to their coffers instead.
Sounds like Goldman is worried the economy will recover and they will no longer be able to borrow money from the government at 0% interest. Why does anyone listen to these bankers? THEY are the ones that got us in this mess in the first place.
So, I am understaznding that #1 I owned my home from 2004-2009 #2 I sold it in July 2009 #3 bought a home in Nov 2009 #4 I will not be elligible for any credit??? Is this correct?? Do you have to currently own your house or does it allow for those that have recently sold a home and are in process of relocating and buying a new house? A little confusing to me.
What would be the drop in home values if Congress does not extend the tax credit? It could be several percentage points. So Goldman's claim is bogus.
Apparently they don't like the little guy getting any tax breaks. Of course, when the little guy gets a tax break, that money goes immediately back into the economy, helping to increase business and create more jobs, and thus more tax income for the government.
When the upper 1% get more tax breaks and corporate welfare, that money is gone forever and contributes 100% to the deficit.
Why does the government use tax credits to keep house prices high, while at the same time funding affordable home programs like Fannie Mae? Let's just clear government out of the way!
So let me get this straight, I am in the Army, I just moved, due to the military changing my assignment, I sold my house early this year, I did not qualify for the tax credit last time because my house was bought 5 years before. Now that I am in the process of building a new house, going to close next week I will not qualify for either tax credit because my new house has not been owned for five years, and also because I have owned a house in the past three years. Something seems strange with all this, can someone shine some light on this. It does not seem right I would love to be able to use the money to stimulate the economy, or at least take advantage of the opportunity to do so. I was under the impression that everyone that owns a house in the past 5 years regardless of situation could qualify if it is their primary residence!! Hope someone can brighten my day and shine some light thanks
As much as I hate Goldman and all their present/formaer employees, they are absolutely right on this. I'm actually amazed that they're being honest about it, because the buyer's bribe is designed explicitly to help their bottom line at the expense of potential house buyers.
How anyone can justify such an abhorrent policy of making houses unaffordable is beyond my imagination. Why is it a national emergency when gas goes to $4 a gallon, but when median houses went to 5X median income, that was a thing to be celebrated?
The fact that not even a single Senator would stand up against this attack on our nation's economic future might make me lose faith in our government's ability to even modestly act in our best interests if I had any faith to lose.
I don't understand why they didn't make the expanded portion of the tax credit retroactive to January 1st of this year. I bought my home on January 31 and had lived in my previous home for 8 years. Someone who lived in a home for 2 years or who had been living in an apartment get money. Why are they discriminating against those of us who have been responsible home buyers and have been paying our taxes for some time while someone who hasnt been paying property taxes and school taxes swoops in and gets the money. Not fair.
Why do couples with $250,000 income need help, or for that matter singles making $125,000.00? I think at least that provision has to go. Are we helping Goldman Sach's junior employees with that provision?
Plunging housing prices, all time low interest rates, and tax credits are creating a favorable environment for renters to convert to homeowners. You may very well find that in today's market you are able to afford a larger home for the same amount of money or even less money than you are currently paying every month in rent. If you dream of having a home office, starting a family soon or expanding your family, now could be the best time to get the additional space that you need for the right amount of money. I have found a really interesting tool which has the ability to determine if a property is a good investment. It’s a smart real estate rating engine which provides lots of information & insight for making a safe real estate investment and can help produce positive cash flow for you. Look into http://www.smartzip.com/info/score
Will this 6500 tax credit, if passed apply to all purchases in 2009? I bought and closed on 8-31-2009.
Sorry Eric, not buying it. The bankers only did what Barney Frank and Chris Dodd and Billy Clinton made them do - lend money to people who could not pay it back. They did this under the guise of boosting minority home ownership and recklessly disregarded the objections of the banking community who didnt think it was a good idea to lend money to people who couldnt pay it back.
Funny thing is, the Republicans took the fall last November for a perfect storm created by the democrats, and now we have the Marxists running the country.
Get the government out of business.
Completely.
That is what we need, and it's all we need. Free people _will_ _figure_ _out_ _a_ _way_. The government should be keeping us free, and protecting our property from theft and fraud, and that is it.
So we are fixing the results of a housing bubble where people bought more house than they could really afford by...helping people buy more house than they can really afford using money we don't have. And it was such a "success" we are extending and expanding the offer.
Hmmm...
So all the people that helped push the housing market along all year besides the first time home buyers, accepted risk now get it stuck to them over a few months...
I'm not eliligible for the tax credits as I bought my house 2 years too early for the $8,ooo tax credit and three years too late for the $6,500 tax credit. But I will certainly be eligible to have to help pay it all back when taxes go up to cover it in years to come. Sounds fair to me. If someone that hasn't had their homes longer than 5 years is assumed to not need the credit just because they are thought to have bought into a risky deal or not capable of keeping payments up then they are wrong as I am paying mine just as fine as the guy thats lived in his for 5 to 8 years. So why the reward for the guy who has lived in his for 5 or more years as we ALL have to pay it back in taxes. Really screwed!!
I'm getting the $8K tax credit, and even I think it's stupid. The people getting it DON'T NEED IT!
A person won't get it until filing taxes, so it's useless as a down payment. And you can't purchase the home unless you qualify based on your income, so it's useless on that front. So what's the point???
And now everyone's complaining (rightfully), "Well what about me? What about my situation?" Where will it end? Does the government need to buy everyone a house??? That's ABSURD. YOU are the government. If you want $8K for a house, then cut taxes! Oh wait... we're trying to not add to the deficit... I forgot...
So... I bought a house this year in the midst of the Great Recession. Put 20% down and was a bit miffed that I didn't qualify for the incentive because it was only for first time home buyers (I had owned a house before but since sold it because I relocated for a job). So now, they expand it to existing home owners but only those who purchase after Dec 1st? How F'd up is that? If they are handing out free money, give it to those who actually risked their capital. I am against this credit altogether. That and cash for clunkers. The gov't deciding who gets money and who doesn't is TYRANNICAL.
What makes the people who bought their homes in 2004 so special. We closed on our house on Dec. 31, 2007 and have been missing tax credits ever since. Don't we deserve a break, too?
THIS IS JUST SO UNFAIR, give credit to some and not others!!! People who bough just before the bill, AHH! Not fair, and complete disrespect to people in this society.
I am like so many others that have posted today. I have owned my house for over 13 years, paid my taxes faithfully. Scrimped and saved to move to a better home. Didn't qualify as a first time buyer, and now because I bought a little too soon will lose out on the $6500.00 as well. Bet i won't lose out on paying for this disaster when the taxes are raised to pay for this now 18 billion tax credit.
How about those of us who have owned our home for the last 15 to 20 years and make below $65,000 and have struggled to pay yearly taxes and expenses because they love their home they own and neighborhood, where is our tax credit? What, you have to purchase a new home in order to qualify, some system we have here. If we have to suck it up then everyone else should too! Do not tell us those complaining about losing their home did not know what they make yearly
before purchasing their home and were fouled by bankers etc. in purchasing a home they could never afford to begin with! It is called COMMON SENSE!! The way we look at it these people do not have the intelligence and like to stick it to people like us who are also struggling and you know what we are told DEAL WITH IT!!!!! We suggest you DEAL WITH IT!!!! WE all make our own little hell!! To think we are all are supposed to be treated equal!! What is wrong with this picture, it is people like us that are carrying you cry baby's. Get over it, you made it this way. You do not hear the President or government bailing people like us in fact we were told you were intelligent enough to get yourself in a mess, be smart enough to bail yourself out! That applies to Wall Street, Bankers and anyone else making 6 digits and more!!!!!!!!!! Bottom line, RICH GET RICHER AND THE POOR GET POORER!!!!! No tax credit or stimulus is ever going to change this!! People wake up and smell the roses and take the blinders off!!!!!
So, if we have made a offer on a new home, but haven't closed or even had an appraisal,and we have lived in our other home 10 years would we qualify?
I brought my home dec.2007 why are we not able to get the tax cerdit. I did not get the 7500 interest free tax or the 8000 first time home buyer. what about our tax credit
Hooray!! Another homebuyer tax credit that will take a year to receive after filing for it!! Government run programs are awesome!!!! Just wait until the public option of healthcare that is run by the government comes out. People will go in for a routine check-up and come out without an arm and bills from the government that you will have to pay for...LOL, ok I'm a little overboard but the government can't run anything in an organized or timely manner so why should getting a homebuyer tax credit check or healthcare be different.
Here is my concern! I bought my home at the age of 18 in 2005. I have been there for 4 years this November. How is fair to let people that are just buying homes get $8,000 tax credit, when they haven't even really started making house payments yet? I on the other hand, will not get a thing, because I have been in my home for 4 years and this credit expires in 2010. My 5 years won't be up until 2010. I, personally think if the government is going to help 1 they should help ALL!!
I bought my house in 2007 what about pepole like us tax payers work everyday where can I get in.
BusinessWeek editors Chris Palmeri, Prashant Gopal, Peter Coy, and Dean Foust chronicle the highs and lows of the housing and mortgage markets on their Hot Property blog. In print and online, the Hot Property team first wrote about the potential downside of lenders pushing riskier, "option ARM" mortgages and the rise in mortgage fraud back in 2005—well ahead of many other media outlets. In 2008, Hot Property bloggers finished #1 in a ranking of the world's top 100 "most powerful property people" by the British real estate website Global edge. Hot Property was named among the 25 most influential real estate blogs of 2007 by Inman News.