Home Prices Rise Again ... But Don't Get Used to It

Posted by: Prashant Gopal on October 27, 2009

Home prices rose 1% in August from the seasonally-adjusted July level — the third month in a row of increases, according to S&P/Case Shiller home price index.

The 20-city index was down 11.3% on a year-over-year basis but the drop is only that severe because prices are measured against values in August 2008, before the economic meltdown pushed up unemployment and dragged down home prices. A few months from now we’ll be comparing prices to post-Sept. 15, 2008 prices and the year-over-year change could very well be in positive territory.

But the $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers that is set to expire Nov. 30 has made it difficult to evaluate the seasonally-adjusted gains posted during the summer. Buyers were rushing to take advantage of the program and that drove sales. If the Congress doesn’t vote to extend the credit, sales could drop in coming months.

Reader Comments

John

October 27, 2009 5:10 PM

August is two months ago and October prices are way down

Jim Campbell

October 27, 2009 8:09 PM

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Scott Sambucci

October 28, 2009 10:08 AM

Hi Prashant - We're seeing the same thing out there. I agree - seems like the short-term bounce is a confluence of factors + seasonality - our data is pointing negatively for the Fall. I wrote about this as well just this morning - http://blog.altosresearch.com/unsustainable/

Doug

October 29, 2009 2:34 PM

The unemployed and the underemployed are using up their savings and many of them (even those with traditional non-toxic mortgages) will be forced into foreclosure, driving housing prices down further.

A second federal stimulus (providing jobs to build/repair our infrastructure) is needed to lower the unemployment rate.

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About

BusinessWeek editors Chris Palmeri, Prashant Gopal and Peter Coy chronicle the highs and lows of the housing and mortgage markets on their Hot Property blog. In print and online, the Hot Property team first wrote about the potential downside of lenders pushing riskier, "option ARM" mortgages and the rise in mortgage fraud back in 2005—well ahead of many other media outlets. In 2008, Hot Property bloggers finished #1 in a ranking of the world's top 100 "most powerful property people" by the British real estate website Global edge. Hot Property was named among the 25 most influential real estate blogs of 2007 by Inman News.

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