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Are you more likely to catch the flu or face foreclosure?

Posted by: Prashant Gopal on April 23, 2008

It depends on where you live. In Nevada, the odds of losing a home to foreclosure could soon be about the same as getting the flu if predictions in a new Pew Charitable Trusts report come true.

One in 11 Nevadans will be in foreclosure within the next two years as a result of subprime loans made in 2005 and 2006, Pew Charitable Trusts predicts in “Defaulting on a Dream: States Respond to America’s Foreclosure Crisis.” (The chances of catching the flu in a given year is about 1 in 10, according to the San Diego Union Tribune.)

Nationally, the group predicts that one in 33 current homeowners will be in foreclosure within two years. Go to page 10 of the report to see what the foreclosure odds are in your state.

Reader Comments


April 26, 2008 4:43 PM

Gopal has been drinking too much in Vegas. He needs to spend more time on research. The fact is that much of the real estate speculations were at the hands of outsiders, like Californians and people of surrounding states. Ads for ownership of highrise condo and detached home were pitched in Los Angeles, Frisco, Sacramento, and elsewhere othersiders. While foreclosure is high in Vegas, it is higher in City of Stockton, Riverside, and San Diego County, California. Vegas was not as over built and highly speculated as in California. As to the Flu epidemic that Gopal analogize,the scare that media has prognasticate every winter years followed by urging flu shots, you would think the media has bought stocks in flu vaccine because every one of these deadly flu epidemic failed to materialize. Gopal is just like these ill informed prognasticators; we forgive him because he knows not what he is saying.


April 27, 2008 3:51 AM

Gopal is crazy.


April 28, 2008 7:50 PM

I live in Las Vegas. The numbers lie.

It's not unusual for investors to own 30-50 houses in Las Vegas, many purchased at the height of the bubble. The statistics fail to take this into account, and instead paint a picture of real live homeowners losing their dream.

FWIW, I bought my house (downtown) at the height of the bubble, and it's still increased in value over 30% since then. Of course, I did my research before buying, rather than just trying to get rich.

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BusinessWeek editors Chris Palmeri, Prashant Gopal and Peter Coy chronicle the highs and lows of the housing and mortgage markets on their Hot Property blog. In print and online, the Hot Property team first wrote about the potential downside of lenders pushing riskier, "option ARM" mortgages and the rise in mortgage fraud back in 2005—well ahead of many other media outlets. In 2008, Hot Property bloggers finished #1 in a ranking of the world's top 100 "most powerful property people" by the British real estate website Global edge. Hot Property was named among the 25 most influential real estate blogs of 2007 by Inman News.

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