Our "Washington DC Bubble" thread gets bigger, BIGGER...

Posted by: Dean Foust on August 20, 2007

washington_monument.jpgI acknowledge up front that this blog posting will contribute absolutely nothing to the sum knowledge of the world. And I don’t mean it to be as self-promotional as it will look, just indulge me in a fun little exercise here. But in the course of doing something else, I stumbled across a posting from last spring on Inman News where the blogger there actually counted how many comments had been contributed over the two years since I first posted a blog entry titled, “Washington DC Bubble?” which explored the question of…well, you know (I’ll forgive him for identifying me with as working for Newsweek).

So I did an up-to-the-minute count. In the 25 months since I made that post, the “Washington DC Bubble?” has elicited 1,164 comments totaling 238,547 words. Is that an Internet record?

tolstoy.jpgBy comparison, John Hersey’s Hiroshima clocked in at roughly 30,000 words, J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix clocked in at 257,045 words, or roughly the same length. And the ultimate stem-winder, War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy (right) was 460,000 words. All comparisons end there.

If you live in Washington or otherwise have a reasons to care about the broader DC market (Maryland, northern Virginia), you can see the original entry and comments by clicking here. And I still think the DC bubble has much further to deflate, perhaps another 15-20%. Judging by this site, so do others.

Reader Comments

mark

August 27, 2007 4:20 PM

Another 15-20%?!?! You are absolutely crazy. The closer in and much more desirable areas of the DC metro area are finally stabilizing and aren't going to get any worse any time soon. There are some further out counties that aren't doing so hot, but they are certainly not going down that much. That blogger and the other sensationalists out there (Housing Panic, I'm looking in your direction) are merely fueling a fire that is trying to go out.

Greg Ling

September 3, 2007 10:49 AM

Why is another 15-20% crazy? I think thats conservative. It hilarious when people do not think its crazy on the way up but think its so on the way down. Where was Mark when the prices were going up 10-20% per year? Why can the opposite not happen?

Historically, DC real estate did not increase much between 90-99. Adjusted for inflation it actually lost value. It was mostly speculators that ran up the values on crazy loans and panicked buyers.

Nothing changed around here in the last 7 years. The govt jobs were always there. Soon people will realize that govt salaries do not support the current prices there will be another 30-40% discounting in housing prices.

Greg Ling

September 3, 2007 10:49 AM

Why is another 15-20% crazy? I think thats conservative. It hilarious when people do not think its crazy on the way up but think its so on the way down. Where was Mark when the prices were going up 10-20% per year? Why can the opposite not happen?

Historically, DC real estate did not increase much between 90-99. Adjusted for inflation it actually lost value. It was mostly speculators that ran up the values on crazy loans and panicked buyers.

Nothing changed around here in the last 7 years. The govt jobs were always there. Soon people will realize that govt salaries do not support the current prices there will be another 30-40% discounting in housing prices.

JanB

September 3, 2007 3:38 PM

Ummm, Mark--
Hate to rain on your parade, but prices all over NOVA and in the DC area are tanking, my friend....and it's gonna get a WHOLE lot worse before it gets better--

Here is a little reality check for you!
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/

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BusinessWeek editors Chris Palmeri, Prashant Gopal and Peter Coy chronicle the highs and lows of the housing and mortgage markets on their Hot Property blog. In print and online, the Hot Property team first wrote about the potential downside of lenders pushing riskier, "option ARM" mortgages and the rise in mortgage fraud back in 2005—well ahead of many other media outlets. In 2008, Hot Property bloggers finished #1 in a ranking of the world's top 100 "most powerful property people" by the British real estate website Global edge. Hot Property was named among the 25 most influential real estate blogs of 2007 by Inman News.

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