Greek President Karolos Papoulias, a Wednesday in mid-February, 2012, Xinhua via Al-Jazeerah.

I am unsure of the sourcing.

I am sure of the most excellent day that the University of Chicago Booth School arranged in New York City. The "fresh water" descended upon the besalted heathens of BostNewYorkington.

I was honored to advance the statements and Q&A of one Dudley, Plosser and Stark. If you know not these names, that is okay. All you need to know is it was a fiscal and monetary big deal. Everyone behaved themselves except Stark who would/strategically did/ not sit between Dudley and Plosser.

Stark, recently of the Bank of Frankfurt, was quite careful not as to taunt, to shake the assembled press and the "markets" that hang on said Press's every syllable.

Plosser, of the First Philadelpha Bank of Dissent, waxed philosophical about a desired distance between Geithner and Bernanke.

Dudley, of the Bank of Wall Street, stepped most delicately. But there, there amidst the tight reasoning, and parsed notes was the single phrase to get you and me to March and to July of this 2012.

Dudley: "This is not a policy choice; it's basic math." Discuss.

Joachim Fels, Morgan Stanley, on Surveillance Midday, 22 February 2012.

I have no idea if the Greece-German spread will widen or narrow. What I do know, is very smart people like Dr. Fels are paying less attention to the markets (spreads, CDS and such) and are spending more time on Political economics, with a capital P.

The euphoria of recent days will evaporate. In its place will be the cold reality of fiscal adjustment and, the protest of an austere Public.

Courage.

It is the spring of 2012. Winter recedes. It is time that choices, decisions and the certitude of the elite all, like a snow flake, be crystallized. Discuss.

Thomas Brown, Second Curve Capital, Bloomberg Surveillance, 21 February 2012.

Robert Kirby, late of The Capital Guardian Trust, suggested eons ago that the goal was to beat the market by two percentage points per year (move the decimal point two units to the right and you have 200 basis points.)

You do the math.

You hit the ball out of the park, over the Monster and the Cask'n Flagon (pitchers and catchers!)

Start at Mr. Kirby's nirvana less 200 bps. to the S&P 500 less another 400 bps. because you bought when comfortable and did not buy when of a fear generated by yourself, your father-in-law, and/or some yahoo guest on Bloomberg Surveillance.

Then overlay a possible new-normal total return that is say 8% gross return and not 12% from another time and place.

8 less 2 = 6 less 4 = 2

A 2% NOMINAL return. With inflation in the vicinity of 3%, you enjoy a Tom Brown adjusted -1% return. (See present Congress for future tax treatment.)

Stop timing the markets. There is a John Henry and Fenway Park of research that suggests timing is...difficult. Stop chasing one- and three-year performance.

Start with cash flow. Start with the study of a good business. And, lose the Dow 13,000 media hysteria. Discuss.

"Governments can't make more tax money available -- that would overburden the states," Fekter told reporters. "We in Austria would have problems getting it through parliament."

--James G. Neuger and Chiara Vasarri of Bloomberg News, Greece Moves Toward Second Bailout, Feb 20, 2012 7:38 PM ET.

They're having "problems" "moving."

Greece and Austria seem to be modestly apart. The economists are not. Whatever the political economics of a given economist, all economists agree we are beyond economics. (Skidelsky!)

For me, it was a single Bloomberg headline while sitting on the TV set. Something about 7% fiscal drag. This suggests lower tax receipts...in both Greece and Austria, and for that matter Australia.

Politics is front-and-center and politics needs crisis to advance. (Read Tuchman.) We are in search of a catalyst to lead us to "political approval."

The days are getting longer. March beckons. We search. Last year, we enjoyed an Arab Spring. Less Grecian catalyst, this 2012 may be the Dither Spring.

Alex Sherman, Comcast Authorizes $6.5 Billion Buyback as Profit Jumps 26%, Bloomberg Businessweek,15 February 2012.

The less-than-known knowns, they are what will kill you. The ambiguity (read Douglass North) of the outcomes of your, and my, recent certitude always surprise.

We state with bombastic "fact" that cash flow will be deployed. Yet, how prepared was I, or you, or the gloom-crew from the reality of Chez Roberts success and commitment to shareholders. (See my interviews with Craig Moffett at Bloomberg Radio+ and Bloomberg TV+.)

As we approach December 2012, or for that matter April 2014, remember this day. Model, think and frame to your heart's content.

Something changed today in American finance.

The debate over sources, and particularly uses of cash shifted like the Red Sox hopes on a Sunday afternoon in very early August.

Something happened. Comcast. Discuss.

From my new Topic Page.

My what?

Curate. I hate the word, curate. It's so hip, so impossibly young, like our social media team/staff/division/armada. All of them get carded, without exception.

I wandered into a "social media event" the other day (among others, cut-and-chiseled fossil Howard Lindzon was holding curated court.)

I felt old.

Google+, Facebook, Twitter, about.me and uncountable more, social media is descending upon us. Ignore it at your peril. You may tumblr down the hill of antiquity.

I dive in. As the seven-year old making the first dive into the Camp Cory dark and murky lake, I struggle. I fail (somehow related to a whale, not funny.) I curate. It's here and now. Dive! My word they're young. I love to curate. Discuss.

--John Maynard Keynes as quoted by maynardkeynes.org

Would "the Board of my Insurance Company" not buy shares in Facebook?

I am less than sure what the late Sir John Templeton would do. (I guess, pass.) I am certain Mr. Buffett would not buy the common shares. (He would insist on preferred shares with an appropriate cash flow.) And yet, whatever the price, the boat will be loaded.

I have read much of the S-1, skimmed the S-1(A) and read various reports.

Report this. Forget the Financials.

I spent most of the weekend using, learning and stumbling around Google+ (thank you Scoble & Jarvis for the nudge.)

Like strong renminbi, like Apple to the moon, like the Europe-in-flames short, long The Facebook is a no-brainer...a sure thing.

In the S-1, up front, there are listed Risk Factors. Add this one. Belief in Google+ is in the minority. Discuss.

--By Alex Kowalski and Tom Keene, 9 Feb 2012, 3:14 PM ET

Oops, it was a radio interview and hear it at Bloomberg Radio+.

Sachs is Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia; Krugman is Paul Krugman of Princeton. This was a most amazing and rewarding interview. I urge you to dive into it, soonest.

Professor Sachs's comments were in good cheer and said with respect for the laureate from The New York Times.

Which is the point. Our discourse is first and foremost always "rather crude." Reading the above in no way captures the richness and nuance of what Sachs, Krugman, Taylor, Spence, Coronado, Glassman, and Zentner give us.

I respect immensely the We-Don't-Have-Someone-Playing-For-The-Knicks-Chair professor's study of Hicks, Hansen and a "rather crude Keynesian position." IS-LM and AS-AD at the zero bound is therapy for the economicsmacro (with non-microeconomic foundations) blathered by Washington.

Yet, I yearn for the middle ground staked out by the Planet Earth professor of Morningside Heights. A stance that begs policy change and not senseless confrontation.

Move away from the one-off media quoteathon. Move towards longer interviews and nuanced debate, that leads to compare & contrast distinctions, even if rather crude. Discuss.

--Joshua Fineman & Laura Marcinek, Bloomberg, Ticonderoga Securities Said to Close After Effort to Bolster Capital Fails, 24 January 2012.

Volume. Or, a lack thereof.

The vogue is cash flow, the belt-and-suspenders tradition is to look at the bottom of the income statement. Hipsters may migrate up to operating income. Those scandalous can add a bit of balance sheet, knead for five minutes. Voila! EBITDA.

The "need" in this early-2012 is far, far away as described by first-look Q4 2011 nominal GDP of 3.2 percent and further described by "a year of slower trading."

Travel to the tippy-top of the income statement and consider the P and the Q of revenue. Price (further south) may be a topic for later this year.

Quantity is the issue right now (in spades on Global Wall Street and in selected other industries.)

Mind your Ps; and now...really, really mind your Qs. Discuss.

Will Leitch, New York Magazine, 5 February 2012, 10:18 pm.

Everyone has a magnet in Europe. Everyone has a magnet per the not-so-great American Housing Crisis. Then, there is the magnet of years of competition that "drew" Mr. Bradshaw into the end zone.

(To review briefly, near the end of this super, Super Bowl, the team in white (Mr. Bradshaw's team) did not want to score even though they could score. The team in blue wanted to let the team in white score even though their job was to not let them score. Bradshaw failed and scored and was in the time-out chair until the leader of Team Blue could not resurrect Saint Flutie. Confused? Consider Athens.)

I digress. Read up on the mystery that is Bradshawian magnetism. Get out your Gilbert Chem Set and some iron filings. Gaze at the Northern Lights. Are there Southern Lights?

Europe should kill for a very-American Super Bowl ending to their chronic crisis. All of Europe needs to be accidental and insane and just perfect. Discuss.

--Wendy Nicholson, Citi Investment Research, 02 Feb 2012.

Proctor & Gamble is not Facebook.

It's a "real" business without some "We are the World" in the S-1 and a 2,000-word (tweet that!) love letter from the Chief Executive Codewriter.

I will passeth judgement on FB after reading a sell-side analysis of the dilution of the lower income statement from sundry RSUs.

In the meantime, all involved, Facebook (Market Cap. $75 Billion?), P&G (Market Cap. $174 Billion) and the marginal and nascent, Davosian tech-tool (Market Cap. $1.298), will seek "more innovation."

We shall see. I respectfully suggest that Planet FB is doing and will do all possible to avoid being a "broken story, broken stock." Discuss.

--Letter from Mark Zuckerberg, 01 Feb 2012

Unfavorable media coverage could negatively affect our business.

--Facebook S-1, page 17, paragraph 1, 01 Feb 2012

I sweat.

Let me explain this as best I can. There are 150+ pages. Bonus! A F-1 Consolidated...whatever.

FB launches with the same earnestness of GOOG with most likely the same outcome. Higher.

I guarantee their market cap will be greater than the Eastman Kodak & Company.

I guarantee the plug-and-chug plug-ins will be of the same value as an analysis of Acme Widget, Inc. of Peoria, Illinois, 61614.

I use FB, 94025, each and every day. Many sundry (mostly females I know) use it much more.

I have zero clue. I turn to Paul Sweeney's (Bloomberg Industries) and @PKEDROSKY 's view of the FB world.

Their view is FB is a slam-dunk, yet...FB is not a layup. Discuss.

--Mark Mahaney, Citigroup, 01/31, 4:55 pm, first look at amazon.com revenues (or lack there of).

Mr. Pearlman, out at StockTwits, nails it. Low margin businesses leave zero margin of error.

Mr. Mahaney massages the press release to find, compare & contrast distinctions.

Distinct this. bezos.com is in "investment mode." The "media" will provide surface analysis. The sell-side (Team Mahaney) will analyze up down and sideways.

Consider the semi-log chart of AMZN. Consider the persistency of amazonian double-digit returns.

Bet against Mr. Bezos at your peril.

Me? I bet Glimmer not Cloud. Discuss.

--Albert Camus, The Plague, 1947.

It has been "a daily round." The dithering of Europe. The dithering of an awkward Davos. And, now more "threads and trivial contingencies."

Contagion.

The markets price expectation, with a capital sigma. Within the alpha, beta, gamma and other Greek dynamics, we "price" what we believe. Not, what we "hope." (Please, please, circle and beware words like hope, paradigm and synergy.)

John Gapper, of the FT, nails this "awkward time." It was awkward in Camus's masterpiece.

Look East for salvation (my faint recollection of Camus). Or, look north-central to Frankfurt.

It is time. The plague is upon us. We, through markets, will apply market-clearing initiative.

For the Davosian elite it's different. It is time for them to do their job...as it should be done. Discuss.

But, it is awkward.

There are serious discussions. I have learned things. I have been humbled by the reach of Surveillance, Deux.

I have been led by a set of informed sources that they did not speak in 1912 like they do on Downton Abbey. They were more awkward. As, are we. Discuss.