http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/ The Pursuit of Prosperity 2007-11-27T13:20:19-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/11/larry_summers_o.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound Writing in the Financial Times a couple of days ago, Larry Summers warns of recession: Even if necessary changes in policy are implemented, the odds now favour a US recession that slows growth significantly on a global basis. Without stronger... Macro michael_mandel 2007-11-27T13:20:19-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/11/my_contribution.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound I'm about to go out to Bed, Bath, and Beyond to buy a new shower curtain. I will check out the stores to see who is out shopping today. But I will restrain myself from making any bigger purchases.... Macro michael_mandel 2007-11-23T11:05:24-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/11/its_still_a_low.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound I have to thank Barry Ritholtz, of the Big Picture for his nice post entitled Breaking the Business Week Cover Curse?. He was referring to the February cover story "It's A Low, Low, Low, Low-Rate World", written by myself and... Financial markets michael_mandel 2007-11-21T17:00:51-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/11/american_consum.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound Here's another way to think of the consumer crunch. For years banks and financial institutions have treated lending to consumers as a low-risk activity. Individual Americans might default, but consumer loans in the aggregate were a low-risk, high-return asset. Now... Macro michael_mandel 2007-11-19T08:56:27-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/11/consumer_crunch.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound Believe me, I'd rather be optimistic than pessimistic. But unfortunately, that's not the direction my reporting is taking me. See my latest cover story, The Consumer Crunch . Politically this is going to be a big deal also.... Macro michael_mandel 2007-11-17T13:07:47-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/10/age_is_how_long.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound Guest blog by Peter Coy Stanford economist John Shoven (pictured) has just written an optimistic piece about how increasing rates of labor-force participation at older ages could increase GDP and help finance entitlement programs. In spirit, it’s a lot... Demographics peter_coy 2007-10-31T10:39:20-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/10/the_end_of_the.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound First, the apology. I'm sorry for the lack of posts--I was pounded by a bad upper respiratory infection at the end of September, and it has taken me a full month to get back to (more or less) normal. I'm... Macro michael_mandel 2007-10-31T09:23:51-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/10/more_bad_news_f.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound According to this morning's employment report, U.S. manufacturing jobs dropped below 14 million for the first time since 1950. Yes, you read that right, one nine five zero. Manufacturing jobs just keep leaking away, with no sign of a bottom.... Labor Market michael_mandel 2007-10-05T13:05:23-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/09/bea_issues_new.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound The Bureau of Economic Analysis took a big leap into the 21st century today. The agency released a new set of figures on R&D spending and how it affects the economy, a big improvement on what it has done in... Tech michael_mandel 2007-09-28T11:01:34-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/09/is_overtime_nec.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound Over the past few years, companies have paid out more than $1 billion per year to settle "wage and hour" lawsuits--typically violations of overtime. That's according to the latest BW cover story, Wage Wars. I wonder, though, whether the overtime... Labor Market michael_mandel 2007-09-24T13:01:19-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/09/department_of_p.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound Suppose that the rate cuts work, and the financial markets calm down. Then money will flow out of the very safe ten-year Treasuries, so long rates will rise. Added to that upward pressure will be the falling dollar, which may... Financial markets michael_mandel 2007-09-21T10:52:04-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/09/productivity_fo.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound As part of my latest piece on Fed policy, I asked several top economists for their forecast of long-term productivity growth. The exact question for the mini-survey was: What do you think the sustainable rate of productivity growth is likely... Growth michael_mandel 2007-09-14T14:44:48-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/09/bernanke_still.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound In a speech today, Bernanke said that "the fundamental elements of the global saving glut remain in place." Is the words of someone who is worried about a credit crunch?... Financial markets michael_mandel 2007-09-11T10:59:50-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/09/todays_job_numb.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound If you are worrying about the economy, don't start with the weak job report--start with yesterday's productivity report. Nonfarm productivity has only risen by 0.9% over the past year. The four-quarter average of nonfarm productivity has only risen by 0.5%,... Macro michael_mandel 2007-09-07T11:02:04-05:00 http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2007/09/so_this_is_what.html?campaign_id=rss_blog_economicsunbound From Bloomberg (August 31): U.S. corporate bond sales soared to $92.5 billion this month, setting an August record, rebounding from the slowest month in two years....San Antonio-based AT&T raised $2 billion from its offering of 30-year bonds at a yield... Financial markets michael_mandel 2007-09-04T16:10:46-05:00