Posted by: Tom Keene on June 16, 2011
Stress in the markets as the VIX goes 18 to 22…the 2-year way sub-.40… and hydrocarbons nudge lower. The key whisper is EUR-CHF…which gave pause early this a.m. with a 1.19 handle…8.5% Swiss appreciation since April.
What to “listen” for? That’s the point. You, and I, never know. We can frame a set of items (data, rhetoric, shocks) but it is always, always something unforeseen. So, I listen to EUR-CHF and understand that the SNB could surprise, but I am humbled by what I don’t know and can’t frame in the near future.
Julian Callow of Barclay’s suggests observe Berlin. The Englander/Anderson tag-team at CitiFX stays strong Swiss/weak Euro.
I am listening for the slightest whisper.