Posted by: Tom Keene on September 20, 2010
Taylor Sees An Eerie Similarity.
John Taylor’s Economics One is must-read. Each essay informs with his famed lighter touch and smart, often Ph.D-level charts. This chart is simple and eerie. Policy can halt a greater decline but then, can we get a re-start for the economy from policy?
CPI XYOY INDEX GP Y ROLL Here is inflation ex. food & energy from 1958. At a new level of disinflation, the chart doesn’t show the outright deflation of the earlier 1950s.
Thoma Attempts To Feed The Beast.
Mark Thoma’s eclectic Economist’s View is hugely popular. Take a look and you’ll see why. Here is an essay combining leftish Krugman and rightish Bartlett on the Bush tax cuts debate. It is particularly interesting how the rightish crew is divided over attack the deficit now…or later.
FDEBGDPT INDEX GP Y ROLL Tax Receipts as a Percent of GDP. To the left is the World War II explosion. To the right, the great two-decade rollover as shown by the red regression. We are below the about 18% “norm”, end of 2009.
Dennis Gartman, of The Gartman Letter, shows a “year of relentless losses by the Swiss National Bank.” He notes that Japan can be different than Switzerland in its unsterilized intervention, but, “past history is not indicative of future performance, but that is indeed the way to bet.”
Deutsche Bank launches a Weekly by LaVorgna, Riccadona, Konstam, Chowdury, Huie and Li. They suggest the U.S. is not Japan as the Fed learned from the BOJ and cut rates much sooner and by a much larger amount. On a different page they reaffirm the need for small business to hire but hiring is closely linked to sales.
SBOISALS INDEX GP Q ROLL NFIB Small Business Sales Expectations. Nowhere near the 1999 - 2007ish regression.
When In Doubt, Blame The French.
This is brilliant and entirely expected from Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College. No need to comment. Just brilliant. Start here with a classic, then I insist here with Ahamed’s four-banker masterpiece.
Irwin: Bonus! Slaughter. Go Big Green