I'm Sorry Carmen & Ken, This Time is Different

Posted by: Tom Keene on September 2, 2010

Homer & Leibowitz Suggest Toxic Combination

Is there a bond bubble? Chris Whalen, of Institutional Risk Analytics, reaches back-to-the-past at zerohedge.com and drags out the classic Inside the Yield Book. Go here to see an important paragraph on Macaulay Duration. Summary: we are reflating to avoid deflation and there is a price.

This Time Beware Pied Pipers

Ken Rogoff creates a must-read essay on jobs. Note, the comments on tax cuts. I’m shocked. Inflation is preferable to deflation. The dollar is feeling very Feldsteinian.

Here Begineth Job Chartapalooza

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400,000 Where Are You?

Weekly Jobless Claims Out 1-Deviation+, Centered About 380K

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A Modest Bright Spot

Avg. Weekly Hours Needs to Get From 34.2 to 34.5

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We Feel Broke

This is a bit hard to see, but a killer chart. Here is Per Capita Personal Disposable Income and the 12-month Rate of Change. It’s simple. Income has leveled out (the upper white line goes flat); and the year-over-year dipped negative and is still way low (the yellow line below zero then to a snappy 2 percent. Translation: No wonder they’re mad at the incumbents.

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Two? Americas

Here is the number I look at at 08:30:24, Ken Prewitt goes over the headlines as I print out the reports and I reach first for Median Duration. We are out about nine standard deviations, way above 20 weeks where say, 12 weeks has been ugly previously. I’m Sorry Carmen and Ken, This time is Different.

Discuss.

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EconoChat captures Tom Keene's thoughts on economics, finance and investment. He is editor-at-large for Bloomberg News and hosts Bloomberg Surveillance and Bloomberg on the Economy on NYC1130, Sirius 129 and XM 130 and Surveillance Midday on Bloomberg Television. His complete interviews are at Tom Keene on Demand. Look for Tom on twitter @tomkeene

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