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Why the Financial Regulation Proposal is Unsatisfying

Posted by: Michael Mandel on June 19

Wall Street’s embrace of foreign markets makes it nearly impossible for national regulators to keep watch over what’s being sold abroad and to whom.

This sentence comes from one of the most important stories BusinessWeek has run this year, “The Perils of Global Banking,” by David Henry and Matthew Goldstein. The story lays out, in precise detail, just how a globespanning financial firm like Lehman escapes the grasp of national regulators during good times—and how it leaves behind an almost indigestible global mess for regulators when things turn bad.

The Henry-Goldstein story helps explain just why Obama’s new financial regulation proposal feels so..unsatisfying. Basically, the Obama proposal calls for beefed-up national regulation, in an increasingly global world. The proposal makes a nod to international coordination, but it’s weak, weak, weak.

Here’s the problem, or rather two problems: First, the U.S. has no way to require other countries and regions—EU, Japan, Russia, China, India—to tighten up regulation enough to really make a difference. Every region has their own interests. That gives plenty of room for financial institutions to search “high and low for the most beneficial legal environments for particular lines of business,” as Henry and Goldstein put it. In fact, the tighter regulation gets in one country, the more incentive there is for financial institutions to spread themselves around the world.

Second, the Obama proposal simply doesn’t deal with a Lehman-type problem—how can national regulators deal with the failure of a global financial institution? To put it most bluntly, who pays when disaster strikes? The Obama folks know they have a problem. They write:

Currently, neither a common procedure nor a complete understanding exists of how countries can intervene in the failure of a large financial firm and how those actions might interact with resolution efforts of other countries. For instance, countries differ on close-out netting rules for financial transactions or deposits. National regulatory authorities are inclined to protect the assets within their own jurisdictions, even when doing so can have spillover effects for other countries.

The Obama folks offer suggestions for more study and more international cooperation, including:

further work on the feasibility and desirability of moving towards the development of methods for allocating the financial burden associated with the failure of large, multinational financial firms to maximize resolution options

To translate: The only way to truly solve this problem is for countries to give up some national sovereignty, and allow a central global board to allocate the global losses during a crisis to different countries.

The fact is, it’s not going to happen anytime soon, no matter how much sense it makes. Can you imagine the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, say, allowing a global board to control multitrillion (perhaps) spending decisions during a crisis? Cue the black helicopters, boys.

Even in Europe, there’s no political will for central management of the next crisis. There’s agreement on a new European Systemic Risk Council, but according to a WSJ piece, “European Union leaders have agreed that a new financial-market overseer won’t be able to force countries to pay for bank bailouts.” Of course not. No one wants to give up any sovereign control.

This time around, the financial crisis was contained, because the U.S. government was still large enough—barely—to take on the burden of being the lender of last resort for the world at the moment of truth. Taking over AIG—and pouring billions through the insurer into European banks—was an astounding case of the U.S. doing “the right thing,” at large cost to itself.

It won’t happen again. The U.S. will never again be large enough, relative to the size of the global economy. And by the time the next crisis rolls around, the dollar will no longer reign supreme as the world reserve currency, significantly reducing the Fed’s maneuvering room.

I’ve got some more thoughts about the Obama proposal, and what it tells us about the shape of the next crisis. In particular, will tighter national regulation force financial institutions to turn themselves into true transnationals—global networks of affiliates which borrow and lend to each other. But that’s for another post. For now, I suggest reading the Henry-Goldstein story, and ask yourself this question: Does the Obama proposal really give regulators the firepower they need to deal with a repeat of the global Lehman disaster?

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Reader Comments

James Mason

June 19, 2009 07:25 PM

The problem with the sort of supra-national control that you suggest is that is just code for handing over complete control to the US. Nobody out there would be so stupid enough to do that. Why are you surprised that the response would be some slightly more polite form of F*** Y**!?

axy

June 19, 2009 08:14 PM

Fine... regulation is impossible to execute given the complex global scope of it. So? Does everything need an equivalent complex answer?

There is something called "Crime" and "Punishment". If you make the punishment suited for the crime, rarely will anybody opt to commit that crime.

All you need to define is what is the crime in this context? And then punishment can be doled out in various forms, e.g., give 20+ years back of your income, prison time, banned from the industry, stopped doing business for many years in a particular country or a particular product, higher taxes, etc.

Please, you have enough intelligence.
You do write good. But there is no
need to fool the public indicating that it is an impossible task. Where there is a will, there is a way.


F.

June 19, 2009 09:00 PM

Regulation is impossible or implausible as we are made to believe and all fingers point to the government for doing such a horrible job…but what about the financial institutions who are making the choices to go abroad knowing very well the consequences and what the US Government has put up to help them. Its fine to make money, it’s what America was founded on (if we want to be honest with ourselves) but when your mode of making money has such negative impact to the best interest of the nation and the people who have made your business and industry succeed then what are we to say about the dedication of these companies. We need some real patriots here, people who value the success of our country and its people over their greed and realize that their continued success go hand in hand, shared interest if you will. What do business ethics at financial firms and the Doto bird have in common?... they don’t exist.

Greg

June 19, 2009 09:11 PM

Another useless article from America's maninstream media. They are quick to admit when thiings are bad but ONLY AFTER you have lost everything. Meanwhile, when real experts are trying to warn us like Mike Stathis, they are shut out by the media.

If you want the truth and the best insight into the financial markets and the tricks used by the media to fool us all, check out Stathis' website www.avaresearch.com

Janice Lawrence

June 20, 2009 12:35 AM

I agree with Axy above - the solution to much of our regulation problem is to punish the real 'evil doers' - greedy execs who put their own over indulgences ahead of what is good for this country. If a few more of these bozos went to prison AND had to pay the money back, more would think long and hard about repeating their errors.

Brandon W

June 20, 2009 07:06 AM

In a system designed to reward greed and gambling you will get extreme greed and gambling. I do believe every market has to have regulations; every game has to have rules. But instead of looking at methods of punishment, perhaps we ought to be reconsidering the rewards. It's just like children; rewarding them for good behaviour is more effective than punishing them for bad. I'm not sure I have a specific suggestion, but a change in perspective might help.

Having said that, I think a lot of problems would be solved by two rule changes in the game. 1) Cut the allowed leverage to 5:1. 2) Explanation of any investment should not take more than 250 words and should be fully understandable to the average person with a Bachelor's degree.

Ajay

June 20, 2009 08:28 AM

I've got news for you. By the time the "next crisis" rolls around the dollar won't exist, as national currencies will be destroyed by private digital currencies, and as a result central banks will have disappeared. The lesson to take from these centuries of financial crises is that regulation is irrelevant, what matters is enlightened investors. If you think you can build the perfect cage that will keep the sheep safe and the wolves out, you're ignoring centuries of evidence that says otherwise. The only way forward is to teach the sheep to recognize the wolves and stay away themselves: for investors to do their own due diligence on whether they should buy notes from a US investment bank or not. If these Lehman note buyers thought 6% returns came with no risk and didn't look into who was backing them, they deserve their losses. If they were lied to about the Lehman origins, I'm sure there are legal options to recover some of their money. Ultimately the buyer has all the power, if they don't use it to compel relevant information, they deserve what they get. Even as astute an investor as Warren Buffett stays away from tech stocks because he doesn't understand their business, you have to stay away from what you don't understand. Anyway, the coming information revolution will provide so much help for investors in choosing appropriate investments that these mooted regulations will thankfully be ignored, another example of the irrelevance of govt.

CompEng

June 20, 2009 09:39 AM

You've just illustrated the "think globally, act locally" principal applied to regulation. When you realize you can't compel other nations to do things, you realize that you'd best focus on your own behavior. I'm not as opposed to regulation as some, but I recognize that almost any time you constrain a company's behavior, you've made them less competitive. So any regulation, any constraint of freedom, comes at a high cost.

That said, I think our focus is best spent on transparency and making sure that risk is appropriately shared, in good times and in bad. We should not set out to prevent failures. And remember, from everything I've read on Setser's blog, the impetus has been from foreign central banks. How hard do we *really* want to encourage them to use US institutions to wash their hands of risk just so they can prop up their exports and manipulate trade?

Michael Pham

June 20, 2009 02:52 PM

It is unclear in the paragraph where you "translate" the Obama administration quote whether you are rephrasing the quote or if it is your interpretation. If you meant for it to be just a rephrasing, either you missed the point of the quote or the full context was not presented.

I haven't read the Obama administration plan, but no where in the aforementioned quote does it imply that the only means to "truly solve this problem is for countries to give up some national sovereignty, and allow a central global board to allocate the global losses during a crisis to different countries." The Obama administration quote merely suggests further research on how to allocate the financial burdens from the failings of large organizations.

Alton Drew

June 21, 2009 09:24 AM

The Obama Administration argues that there is market failure in the financial markets; that because of greed, a lack of transparency, and the selling of unregulated derivatives the U.S. and the globe is in the middle of a financial crisis. Regulations requiring the sale of certain derivatives on an open exchange may address the transparency issue but Mr. Obama's proposal does not go to the root cause of the crisis which was that borrowers, for whatever reasons, could not meet the obligations underlying these instruments.

Alton Drew
www.altondrew.com

LAO

June 22, 2009 09:49 AM

It seems to me highly likely that the ho-hum response of the markets to these regulation proposals confirms that the soft underbelly lies in the untouched arenas. One can hardly blame the administration and the Fed for creatively avoiding pulling the rug out from under the global financial "system" at this time.

The complexity of these highly risky instruments merely provides a convenient excuse for not messing with them. I sincerely hope that in calmer financial times, the government will awake to the fact that many of the so-called sophisticated players were allowed to breach the high net worth barriers to entry by representing large groups of individuals whose net worth never would have justified the risk. Let the genuinely rich gamble and try to manipulate nations all they please, with their own money.

Thomas Esmond Knox

June 22, 2009 07:54 PM

Michael.

Excellent comments.

The Henry-Goldstein article was also excellent.

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About

Michael Mandel, BW's award-winning chief economist, provides his unique perspective on the hot economic issues of the day. From globalization to the future of work to the ups and downs of the financial markets, Mandel-named 2006 economic journalist of the year by the World Leadership Forum-offers cutting edge analysis and commentary.

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