A Pleasant Piece of News

Congratulations!

All the best!

Well done. Best of luck.

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/01/american_recess.html

American Recession, Chinese Depression? Parallels to 1929

Posted by: Michael Mandel on January 12

Is China today like the U.S. in 1929?

This morning brings reports that U.S. imports plummeted in November.Since August non-petroleum imports, adjusted for inflation, are down 10% with no sign yet of a bottom.

At the same time, Chinese exports are starting to fall. According to this morning’s report,

Did this blog of yours also run for the this award?

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/01/american_recess.html

American Recession, Chinese Depression? Parallels to 1929

Posted by: Michael Mandel on January 12

Is China today like the U.S. in 1929?

This morning brings reports that U.S. imports plummeted in November.Since August non-petroleum imports, adjusted for inflation, are down 10% with no sign yet of a bottom.

At the same time, Chinese exports are starting to fall. According to this morning’s report,

Congrats. You are usually early pointing out new trends and you take the arrows that pioneers usually get for going against the prevailing consensus. Regarding the Chinese export story mentioned by Jcage; it is too early to tell how that will play out. The Chinese government numbers are suspect. On the other hand there could be a dynamic at work where China is taking market share from other exporters of a shrinking pie. Too early to tell.

Jcage

I've been wrong about a lot more things than that. But China, in particular, has been particularly hard to call. My biggest error: For years I was writing that the global financial system was fragile, but any break was more likely to come in China than in the U.S. So far that has turned out to be very wrong.