Archives: March 2009

Talking to Paul Kennedy

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 31, Categories: Political Economy

My colleague Steve LeVine recently interviewed Paul Kennedy, author of the seminal The Rise and Fall of Great Powers. Steve asked Kennedy about America's future. Surprisingly, Kennedy was not as...

Is Simon Johnson Right? A note on finance and innovation

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 31, Categories: Financial markets

In the latest issue of the Atlantic, Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the IMF, writes an article entitled The Quiet Coup. His premise: The financiers have taken over the...

Harsh Predictions about the Future

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 30, Categories: Financial Crisis

I'm at a conference on the Council on Foreign Relations, looking back at the Great Depression and the New Deal. One speaker is Ed Prescott, 2004 Nobel Prize winner. He...

Will the Stock Market Rally Continue?

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 26, Categories: Investments

I just wrote a new story for the magazine, suggesting that we are nearing a bottom for the market. Here's the top of the story: Predicting the stock market is...

More details about how the crisis grew--and the argument for a global central bank

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 20, Categories: Financial Crisis

The big surprise, when Lehman failed, was how fast the disaster spread across the global financial markets and economy. We are gradually understanding more about why that happened. Brad Setser...

The Argument Against Letting AIG Fail

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 20, Categories: Financial Crisis

Since I argued that we should have saved Lehman and let AIG go, let me give the opposite side. Or more precisely, let me quote from a post by Mark...

AIG Bonuses and Political Will

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 18, Categories: Financial Crisis

Simon Johnson writes on TPM Cafe: Stabilization programs in emerging markets often come down to this: the government needs to do something unpopular, e.g., reduce some subsidies, privatize an industry,...

Name That Bubble

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 18, Categories: Trade

Here's a little quiz for you. Which of the following quantities grew the most between 1998 and 2007? A) Market value of owner-occupied U.S. homes B) Dollar amount of debt...

Should We Have Saved Lehman and Let AIG Fail?

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 17, Categories: Financial Crisis

Just asking. These folks at AIG are turning out to be annoying and amateurs to boot, in the deepest sense. It looks like they were just playing out of their...

Comment Problems

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 17, Categories: Blog

I apologize to everyone...we are still experiencing problems with the comment system. Even though it doesn't look like it, your comments are going through! No need to post them multiple...

My textbook

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 16, Categories: Teaching

I have tried to downplay the boosterism, but it's time for a bit. My new introductory economics textbook is now available from both Amazon and McGraw-Hill (for faculty). It's written...

A Funny AIG thought

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 16, Categories: Financial markets

Suppose that the U.S. government completely nationalizes AIG, so that the new entity now shares the government's AAA rating. Does that mean the U.S. and foreign banks have to return...

German and French banks got $36 billion from AIG Bailout

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 15, Categories: Financial Crisis

We officially moved into the next stage of the crisis today. AIG, likely under pressure from the administration, decided to come clean about where most of the bailout money was...

The Foreign Policy of China's Reserves and the Trade Bubble

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 15, Categories: Financial Crisis

This is a follow-up post to "The Simple Guide....," involving a deeper look at China. I'm going to use Brad Setser's post from Saturday, entitled China has more to worry...

Wall Street as a Feeder Fund for the U.S.

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 14, Categories: Financial markets

I was just reading a post by James Surowiecki where he was arguing that "Lehman's Failure Mattered." However, he never explained *why* Lehman's failure was so quickly shattering to the...

A Simple Guide to the Banking Crisis

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 12, Categories: Financial Crisis

I don't know why I called this a "simple guide to the banking crisis." Really, it's the longest post I've written here. But here it is: Why is the banking...

The Innovation Economy at the Churchill Club

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 11, Categories: Growth

The panel I ran at the Churchill Club in Silicon Valley is here....

Michigan: The Health-and-Education State

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 11, Categories: Labor Market

One last tidbit on the topic, before I move onto something else. Take a look at this chart for the Michigan job market: As of January 2009, Michigan jobs in...

Non-Health/Ed/Gov Jobs at 1998 Levels

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 09, Categories: Labor Market

For my fans who did not like my previous post on health and education--here's another that you won't like. Since 1998, there has been no growth in jobs, with the...

Managers Take A Hit

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 06, Categories: Labor Market

I'm updating the previous table I posted on changes in employment by occupation. The biggest surprise--the number of people in 'management occupations' is down over the last year. I haven't...

Breaking the Momentum of the Job Cuts

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 06, Categories: Labor Market

Is healthcare and education spending the most reliable fiscal channel for creating jobs? This morning’s employment report is horrific. Nonfarm payroll employment is down 651,000 in February, down almost 2...

A Bad Decade for Nonfinancial Profits

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 04, Categories: Financial Crisis

I continue on my recent task of abusing the decade from 1997-2007. The question is--how much of corporate profit growth during this decade was driven by the financial sector? The...

A Surprise: What Are Americans Consuming Less of?

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 02, Categories: Financial Crisis

Here's a question for you. What are Americans consuming less of these days? We all know that they are buying fewer cars and SUVs. But what category of spending is...

Fun in Kansas City

Posted by: Michael Mandel on March 01, Categories: Journalism

I just came back from the first-ever Economic Blogger's forum in Kansas City, put on by the Kaufman Foundation. With one exception (see bottom), I had a great time chatting...