Archives: February 2009

Back to Health and Education

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 27, Categories: Labor Market

I've harped over and over again about the importance of health and education as a driver of growth, in both hiring and spending. Taken together, health and education equals 25%...

The GDP Revision: The End of Productivity

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 27, Categories: Financial Crisis

Obviously this morning's GDP report is extremely depressing, with growth being revised down from -3.8% to -6.2% in the fourth quarter. Let me just highlight one interesting implication. Based on...

Bank Nationalization: The Moment of Truth Approaches

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 27, Categories: Financial Crisis

This morning's Citi announcement puts us one step closer to the moment of truth for the U.S. financial system. The key is not whether to nationalize or not--the government has...

The Failure of the Internet Decade

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 26, Categories: Future

I just gave a talk to the Massachusetts Technology Leadership Council (a full house of 400 people!) on "Innovation and the Financial Crisis." The talk was well-received. I rarely do...

More comparisons to 1929-39

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 20, Categories: Financial markets

Kartik asked to see the full comparison of the last ten years in the stock market versus 1929-39. Here is the chart. The top line is the S&P500 index, adjusted...

The PPI says: Service Sector Deflation is Almost Here

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 19, Categories: Macro

When the producer price numbers were released this morning, everyone fixated, as usual, on the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods. So you can find plenty of sites on the...

The Great Repudiation Revisited

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 18, Categories: Financial Crisis

Back in October, I wrote a story where I argued that the U.S. was heading for a Great Repudiation of foreign debt: "Will Washington act in a way that imposes...

A Decade as Bad as the Great Depression

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 18, Categories: Financial markets

Over the past ten years, the S&P 500 is down 50% adjusted for inflation (February 17, 1999 to February 17, 2009). By my calculation, the stock market was down roughly...

The End of the Trade Bubble?

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 12, Categories: Trade

Here....

Could the Crisis Have Been Predicted? What the Fed's new report tells us

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 12, Categories: Financial Crisis

Every three years the Federal Reserve does an extensive survey of consumers to find out about their financial position. This afternoon they released the results of their 2007 Survey of...

The Case for a V-Shaped Recovery

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 11, Categories: Macro

On Monday Justin Lahart wrote a nicely balanced piece in the WSJ on the possibility of a strong recovery. He wrote: But just as economists were caught flat-footed by the...

Innovation Economy: A special offer for readers of my blog

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 09, Categories: Tech

On March 4th I'm going to be speaking out in Silicon Valley on the topic of the "Innovation Economy." The folks at the Churchill Club, who are doing the organizing,...

Growing Occupations, Shrinking Occupations

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 09, Categories: Labor Market

As the job market decays, I've been pointing out that some industries have continued to do well. Now let's take a slightly different cut--looking at occupations rather than industries. Look...

Jobs:The Tangible Sector Takes it On the Chin

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 06, Categories: Labor Market

This morning's employment report was absolutely horrible, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.6% and almost six hundred thousand jobs lost, in just one month. But in the midst of...

Obama's PATCO moment

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 05, Categories: Labor Market

How is Barack Obama similar to Ronald Reagan? See here....

A Fun Fact About the Savings Rate

Posted by: Michael Mandel on February 03, Categories: Macro

With all the discussion about today's savings rate, it's important to point out an important fact. Savings is a residual: That means the government measures disposable income and consumption spending....

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Michael Mandel, BW's award-winning chief economist, provides his unique perspective on the hot economic issues of the day. From globalization to the future of work to the ups and downs of the financial markets, Mandel-named 2006 economic journalist of the year by the World Leadership Forum-offers cutting edge analysis and commentary.

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