Posted by: Michael Mandel on August 01
The labor market report this morning shows that private sector jobs are down by 418K over the past year. That doesn’t seem so bad. However, history suggests that the revisions downward could be quite large.
Let’s look back at the last recession in 2001. The July 2001 employment report, released August 3, 2001, showed that private employment had risen by 369K over the previous year. According to the latest revision, the actual change in private jobs from July 2000 to July 2001 was a decline of 398K jobs—almost an 800K swing.
I’m not saying that the same thing will happen again…but the job numbers have a real tendency to be overstated when recessions are starting.
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