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Archives: July 2008

Yes, Virginia, it's a recession

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 31, Categories: Macro

I've steadily maintained that the economic data overstated the strength of the economy, and today we had the first confirmation. The BEA issued its revision of the past three years...

House Price Drop: Good News for Young

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 29, Categories: Demographics

I'm on 'vacation' right now...actually, I'm on the Jersey shore finishing up my textbook. But I had to comment on today's home price drop. The previous increase in home prices...

Paulson tells BW "months" for bulk of housing correction

Posted by: Peter Coy on July 21, Categories: Financial markets

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told BusinessWeek editors on July 21 that he think it will take months, not years, to work through "the largest part of the housing correction." Paulson...

Real College Grad Wages Plummet 5.5%

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 18, Categories: Labor Market

I sure hope that there is a mistake with the data...because if it isn't, it's just terrible news. The BLS just came out with its data on usual weekly earnings...

Time to Buy? Almost

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 16, Categories: Investments

Back on Dec 12, 2007, I announced here that I had shifted some money from equities to money market funds. As it turned out, that was a reasonably good call,...

Yes, still deflation

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 16, Categories: Macro

Maybe I'm crazy, but this morning's CPI number actually improves the odds of deflation sometime in the next year. According to the BLS, consumer prices went up 1.1% in June--just...

Slowing services inflation

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 15, Categories: Macro

Repeat after inflation is slowing, not rising. In particular, producer price inflation in the "traditional service industries" is only 0.6%, on a year over year basis, down from 1.8%...

The Perils of Fannie and Freddie, part II

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 14, Categories: Financial markets

Investors figured out today that the Paulson/Bernanke rescue plan is not going to save Fannie and Freddie in their current form as private companies. The stock of the two companies...

Deflation now?

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 14, Categories: Financial markets

A year from now, will we be talking about galloping inflation or a plunge into deflation? I think the odds favor deflation, or at least lower inflation. Housing is in...

The Perils of Freddie and Fannie

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 13, Categories: Financial markets

What we saw this weekend was the world's biggest temporary sandbag. With the waters rising and about to swallow Freddie and Fannie, Paulson and Bernanke stepped in with--what? A bunch...

Labor Markets Worsen

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 03, Categories: Labor Market

This morning's employment reports show a pervasive and broad weakness in the labor market. And frankly, I think the situation is actually considerably worse than the numbers show. Let's take...

More on e-commerce

Posted by: Michael Mandel on July 01, Categories: Macro

This is the chart I was doing when I found the mistake in the previous post. It shows the share of retail sales growth coming from e-commerce (leaving out gasoline...


Michael Mandel, BW's award-winning chief economist, provides his unique perspective on the hot economic issues of the day. From globalization to the future of work to the ups and downs of the financial markets, Mandel-named 2006 economic journalist of the year by the World Leadership Forum-offers cutting edge analysis and commentary.

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