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Posted by: Michael Mandel on January 30
Just to point out in this morning’s GDP report, the increase in nonfarm business gross value added—which is the numerator for productivity—was only 0.4%. Aggregate hours rose at a 1.1% rate, so we could have a negative productivity number for the fourth quarter.
Folks, we are in an secular productivity downshift, which raises the odds of stagflation.
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