Posted by: Michael Mandel on September 21
Suppose that the rate cuts work, and the financial markets calm down. Then money will flow out of the very safe ten-year Treasuries, so long rates will rise. Added to that upward pressure will be the falling dollar, which may make foreign investors a bit skittish.
Logical conclusion? Fixed mortgage rates could rise, which may actually put a damper on the core of the housing market.
The fact is, if you are a borrower with good credit taking out a conforming mortgage, the current crisis has helped you. You can get a 15-year fixed rate at 5.98%, compared to 6.06% a yaer ago.
Is it possible Bernanke’s cut will help subprime borrowers and people on the edge, but push the pain into the core?
The financial markets may calm down, because they got the cheap(er) money that they want. I think the rate cuts will do little to help the housing market. The 8 bp difference in the fixed rate is relatively inconsequential. The rate cut /may/ rescue a very few people in ARMs, but resetting from, say, $1000/mo to "only" $1700/mo, instead of $1850/mo, isn't going to make a difference. I suspect most people in ARMs are at their financial redline as it is, and the increase will kill them either way. These people made stupid and/or uninformed decisions and they're going to have to pay for them. Too bad - that's life. Maybe they'll learn something.
The real and continuing damage is in the nonconforming and that represents a large part of the market.
This is fabulous... a great question for my college level economics class tomorrow.
What really happened was the US Prime Rate was 1% too high causing retrenchment in our economy.
We still have commercial banks unwilling to lend or even re-amortize commercial loans.
Mortgages were never the real problem; it was higher interest rates outracing the return on equity and the cost of fuel squeezing an additional 10%-15% out of consumer’s purchasing power.
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