BEA jumps into the 21st century with new R&D figures

Two questions :

1) So, is the economy still 'so much stronger that we think'?

2) What have the R&D trends been for 2005-07?

Indeed, R&D is *critical* to economic progress. Michael, like you I'm an economics forecaster, alas I have to remain incognito--not that you'd know me, but my company's management would prefer it that way. Anyway: two things have struck me more and more in reviewing data from 1945 on. First, in recent decades the private sector has been bowing out of basic research--something like Bell Labs would be impossible to start today, because there is no short term ROI to point to. If future historians label the 21st century "the Chinese Century" that will probably be why. Second, what *really* strikes me is how U.S. government spending can be either tremendously destructive, or tremendously constructive, depending on whether that spending is throwing money at the past (Social Security, Medicare, military) or investing in the future (NASA, ARPAnet, school lunches, building transportation infrastructure). The nut is that The Past has many powerful agents working to direct tax money toward the status quo. The future has no voice, as no one knows for sure what the future will bring, and children have no votes.

If I had but one wish, it would be that we (as a country) refocused the federal budget on investing in the future. Put bluntly: ration healthcare to adults if need be to ensure children get a healthy start. Stop spending on military platforms that harken back to World War II (aircraft carriers and attack subs...would have been handy in 1942, but where is the Al Quaeda blue water fleet?). Reallocate the billions we spend on 1945 era weapons systems to basic scientific research, especially for new sources of energy. Agricultural subsidies...if we want to preserve a nostalgic "Heartland" way of life, that's fine, the French like their own "Heartland" peasant culture, but both the U.S. and France should just bolster the incomes of small farmers directly. Zillions of dollars subsidizing uneconomical corn growing just leads to agribusiness muscling out the small farmers we love. Thanks for listening, and always question the conventional wisdom:)