The Google Android Phone's Big Premiere

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Wide-Open App Marketplace

Google and other Android supporters surely will try to prove the pessimists wrong. Google, for one, is expected to launch an extensive marketing campaign for the device. "Google is the defining Web 2.0 company for online search," Ambrosio says. T-Mobile is also throwing its marketing muscle behind the G1—though its budget is typically nowhere near as big as that of larger rivals. "It will be the biggest marketing campaign we ever launched for a mobile device," Cole Brodman, T-Mobile's chief information and innovation officer, said at the unveiling, attended by Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page.

G1 sales will also benefit from the flexibility of the Android Marketplace online app store. Unlike Apple's iTunes App Store (BusinessWeek.com, 9/5/08), Google's marketplace won't vet developers. Google will let anyone post applications to its store, where features will be rated in a YouTube-like manner. The openness of the Android software also can make it easier for developers to create associated tools more quickly.

The Android-based handset also boasts a slide-out full Qwerty keyboard, which the iPhone lacks. The device, which will feature a capable music player, that allows for easy music downloads from Amazon (AMZN), is also expected to come in three colors: black, white, and brown. And as expected it offers plenty of tight integration with a wide range of Google services, including search, mapping, and address book tools. "If T-Mobile launches a bugs-free, easy-to-use phone, then its brand equity will increase," says Tanabian, who has consulted for T-Mobile.

The Android Army Is Coming

Apple's iPhone isn't expected to be the main competitor for G1. The Android-based phone may erode sales of the Sidekick, phones that run Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows Mobile software, and smartphones made by Motorola (MOT) and Research In Motion (RIMM), maker of the BlackBerry. RIM "might lose some share by virtue of being the market leader" in the U.S., Rubin says. T-Mobile's parent, Deutsche Telekom (DT), will introduce the phone in the U.K. on Oct. 22 and elsewhere in Europe in the first quarter of 2009.

G1 stands to become a more formidable competitor as it's picked up by other manufacturers as well. Motorola, LG and Samsung are expected to launch Android models worldwide in 2009. And their Android-based phones may look vastly different from each other and the G1. Europeans may get a slider with a 12-key keyboard that they favor. Japan may get a phone with built-in mobile TV. There could be special phones for doctors or for lawyers.

Big cell-phone carriers also will help determine the success of coming Android phones. "Android has the potential to be much bigger than Apple because they can have many more manufacturers making its products," says Chris Ambrosio, an analyst with consultancy Strategy Analytics.

Kharif is a senior writer for BusinessWeek.com in Portland, Ore.