At eBay, Is Skype There to Stay?

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He adds that many people already communicate online via instant message and sending files. "The telephone companies are not going to invent the communications of the future."

Perhaps not. But in the U.S., it's the cable and telephone companies—not the new Web players such as Skype, Google Talk, and Jahjah—that have taken the lead in providing Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services. These include Comcast (CMCSA), Time Warner, Vonage (VG), and Cablevision (CVC), according to research firm Telegeography.

Mobile Phones a Must

Moreover, in the U.S., the telephone companies still largely control the key communication device of the future: the mobile phone. For Skype to truly go mainstream it needs to become common on the device most associated with voice calls and the future. Until then, it will be difficult to gain the traction needed to grasp a significant share of the $1.7 trillion global calling market that Skype sees as its main market. "Without question more people are using their mobile phone and they are using it much more even within their home," says Jopling. "The players that can control that game are very much the Verizons, the AT&Ts (T)," and other providers of cellular calling, he says.

Skype is helped in the mobile arena by recent moves by Google and Apple to open up handsets to third-party software. Google's Android mobile operating system and Apple's decision to allow third-party software applications give users the ability to easily install VoIP software, such as Skype, on their phone. Once installed, Skype users can make international calls for between 2¢ and 40¢ a minute, depending on the location, plus whatever charges apply from their carrier for a local or national call. (Calls to remote places such as Guinea-Bissau can cost as much as $1 per minute). Skype has an application for the iPhone and is working with Google Talk on partnerships, though no Android application has been announced.

Already, Skype has seen some traction on the mobile phone. More than 7 million people downloaded the new version of Skype for Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows Mobile operating system since its launch last spring.

Skype 4.0 on the Way

Silverman notes that Skype's success, to date, has been without marketing. In the future, the company plans to get more aggressive about promoting its service in hopes of bringing in new paying customers. Only about 10% of Skype's users pay to talk to non-Skype users, says Silverman. He believes that the new Skype 4.0 version, now being tested, will be reliable and simple enough to encourage more existing Skype users to join the ranks of paying customers.

To prove its worth to eBay investors, however, Skype will have to show it can reaccelerate growth in its own business—perhaps flirting again with the triple-digit numbers it posted each quarter last year. Then maybe the company considered by some to be eBay's biggest mistake could start to be viewed as one of its saviors. If not, Skype may become a cheap buy for somebody else.

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Holahan is a writer for BusinessWeek.com in New York.